Recent Entries

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-12-02 02:40:00

Will there be a billion climate refugees? (p0gx3p11.mp3)

Former Vice President Al Gore has said that climate change is predicted to lead to a billion climate refugees. But where do these predictions come from and are they realistic? We investigate the idea that floods, droughts, storms and sea level rise will cause a mass migration of people across borders.

Reporter and Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

(Photo: Floods in central Somalia Credit: Said Yusuf - WARSAME/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-11-25 06:00:00

A boy meets girl meets stats story (p0gvr3k1.mp3)

Veronica Carlin is a data scientist who loves romantic comedies. But she had a hunch about those movies, that there aren’t many women like her, women in STEM - science, technology, engineering and maths – taking the lead roles. So she set out on a maths quest to find out what’s what. Presenter: Kate Lamble Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot (Picture: A young couple with a heart-shaped balloon on the street Credit: Cultura RM Exclusive/Spark Photographic / Getty)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-11-18 06:00:00

Are women in the UK the biggest binge drinkers in the world? (p0gtjqd7.mp3)

We check out suspect stats on boozing Brits and fishy figures on fishing fleets in the South China Sea. With the help of Professor John Holmes from the University of Sheffield's School of Medicine and Population Health and Simon Funge-Smith, a senior fishery officer at the FAO. Presenter and producer: Charlotte McDonald Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-11-11 06:00:00

Can maths prove the existence of aliens? (p0gryxqn.mp3)

Are we alone in the universe – and if not, how many other civilisations might there be? Remarkable images and data sent back to Earth by the James Webb telescope have given a new impetus to a well-worn debate. We ask how far mathematics – and in particular a famous equation called the Drake Equation – can be used to answer one of the most fundamental questions we face. Paul Connolly investigates with the help of Catherine Heymans, Astronomer Royal for Scotland and Professor at the University of Edinburgh and Bill Diamond, President and CEO of the SETI Institute in California. Presenter: Paul Connolly Producers: Paul Connolly and Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Engineer: David Crackles (Image: : A cluster of young stars, surrounded by clouds of interstellar gas and dust, in a nebula, located in the constellation Carina. Credit: Reuters)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-11-04 05:50:00

Do Indian women own 11% of the world’s gold? (p0gqlssd.mp3)

The cultural importance of gold in India as a symbol of wealth, prosperity and safety is well known – but how much do Indians actually own? Reporter Perisha Kudhail looks at a widely circulated claim about Indian women owning 11% of the world’s gold, with the help of Delhi based journalist Mridu Bhandari and Joshua Saul, CEO of the Pure Gold Company. Presenter: Ben Carter Reporter and Producer: Perisha Kudhail Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: James Beard (Image: A saleswoman shows gold bangles to a customer at a jewellery showroom in Kolkata. Credit: Reuters/Rupak De Chowdhuri/File Photo)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-10-28 02:40:00

The Overlooked Mathematicians of History (p0gp91gy.mp3)

Conventional histories of mathematics are dominated by well-known names like Pythagoras, Leibniz or Newton. But to concentrate solely on figures from Europe gives us only a patchwork understanding of the rich and varied history of mathematical achievement around the world. Tim Harford speaks to Dr Kate Kitagawa, co-author of ‘The Secret Lives of Numbers’ to explore the long history of mathematical advances and innovation across civilisations and centuries, from the female mathematician at court in imperial China to the pioneers in the mathematical powerhouses of the Middle East in the first millennium AD. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: James Beard (Picture: Statue of Al Khwarizmi, a ninth century mathematician Credit: Mel Longhurst/VW Pics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-10-21 06:00:00

Title edit What do windscreen splats tell us about insect decline? (p0gmwfmv.mp3)

Do you notice fewer insect splats on windscreens than you used to? There’s a study in the UK trying to measure this ‘windscreen phenomenon’, as it’s become known. We hear more about the study and whether we can draw conclusions about insect numbers in general, from reporter Perisha Kudhail, Dr Lawrence Ball from the Kent Wildlife Trust and Professor Lynn Dicks from the University of Cambridge. Presenter: Ben Carter Reporter/Producer: Perisha Kudhail Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot (Photo: Dead insects on a windshield Credit: shanecotee / Getty)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-10-14 06:00:00

Greedy jobs and the gender pay gap (p0glfjj1.mp3)

Harvard professor Claudia Goldin has become only the third woman to win the Nobel Economics Prize for her groundbreaking research on women’s employment and pay. Tim Harford discusses her work showing how gender differences in pay and work have changed over the last 200 years and why the gender pay gap persists to this day. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: David Crackles (Picture: Claudia Goldin at Havard University Credit: Reuters / Reba Saldanha)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-10-07 06:00:00

Are half the words in English from French? (p0gjxyk0.mp3)

Are almost half the words in the English language of French origin? It’s a claim one of our loyal listeners found surprising. Tim Harford talks to Dr Beth Malory, lecturer in English Linguistics at University College London, who explains why so many words derived from French have ended up in English. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Daniel Gordon Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot (Picture: A French dictionary showing the entry 'Dictionnaire' Credit: NSA Digital Archive / iStock / Getty Images Plus)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-10-04 09:30:00

Vaccine claims, Alzheimer's treatment and Tim's Parkrun times (p0gj79t7.mp3)

John Campbell, a YouTuber whose posts get millions of views, has made claims about excess deaths and the Covid vaccine. We show why he's incorrect. Also will a much-vaunted new treatment for Alzheimer's really change lives and how much longer can Tim expect his Parkrun times to improve? We look at the trends – and the rest of the team’s times.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-09-30 06:00:00

Is the UK really ahead in cutting carbon emissions? (p0ghk45f.mp3)

The UK Prime Minister has announced several changes to key policies designed to help Britain reach net zero by 2050. In a major speech justifying what many see as a watering down of commitments, Rishi Sunak championed Britain’s achievements to date in cutting emissions. But where does the UK actually stand compared to other countries? Tim Harford talks to Hannah Ritchie from Our World in Data and author of “Not the End of the World”. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower, Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: James Beard (Photo: Smoke rising out of chimneys at Ratcliffe on Soar power station Credit: David Jones / PA)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-09-27 09:30:00

NHS consultant pay, Net Zero claims and Scotland's ferry woes (p0ggt9wt.mp3)

NHS consultants in England are striking over a pay offer of 6%. We look at whether they are paid an average of £120,000 a year and examine how much their pay compared to inflation has fallen. Also we fact check some of the claims Rishi Sunak made in his net zero speech, ask whether Britain is really that bad at building infrastructure compared to other countries and investigate the real levels of cancellations at Scotland and the UK's largest ferry company, Calmac.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-09-23 06:00:00

Which city has the longest canals? (p0gg65tq.mp3)

After a listener emailed More or Less to ask whether world famous Venice or the slightly less famous English city of Birmingham has more canals, Daniel Gordon decided to investigate and widen the question to the whole world – with some interesting answers. Guests: Giovanni Giusto, Venice City Councillor David Edwards-May, Inland Waterways International Dr Hamed Samir, University of Basra Bai Lee, Editor of China Grand Canal Presenter/Producer: Daniel Gordon Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: David Crackles (Picture: Gondola in Venice Credit: Jane Worthy/BBC)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-09-20 10:40:00

Social housing, NHS workforce and Liz Truss debt claims (p0gfm0bg.mp3)

Long: Housing minister Rachel Maclean claimed the government has built a record number of social rent homes. Tim and the team investigate. Following Lucy Letby’s conviction, we look at how sentences for murder have changed over the past few decades. Plus after Liz Truss’s speech this week defending her short stint as Prime Minister, Tim reminds us how her mini-budget raised borrowing costs and might have pushed up the national debt even more. And will 1 in 11 workers in England really work for the NHS by the middle of the next decade? Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Jon Bithrey Producers: Daniel Gordon, Natasha Fernandes, Nathan Gower, Charlotte McDonald, Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-09-16 06:00:00

How to approach the world through numbers (p0gdw502.mp3)

How can we navigate our lives in a more efficient and satisfactory way? It’s a question Professor David Sumpter is looking to answer in his new book, Four Ways of Thinking. He talks to Tim Harford about four different approaches to our day to day challenges. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Sound Engineer: Andy Fell Editor: Richard Vadon (Picture: Conceptual illustration of mathematics Credit: Science Photo Library / Getty)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-09-13 09:29:00

Skin cancer, London rents and your great great great granddaughter (p0gd4xyy.mp3)

A BBC report quoted a study that said 1 in 4 men and 1 in 5 women in the UK will get skin cancer in their lifetime. Tim Harford and the team look into the detail. Also London’s Mayor Sadiq Khan said London’s average rent will hit £2,700 a month next year, with the average take home salary £2,131. How accurate are the figures and what do they tell us about the affordability of the capital’s rental properties? We fact check Donald Trump’s recent claim that 35,000 Americans died building the Panama Canal. And as noughties band Busted re-release Year 3000 with the Jonas Brothers, just how many greats should be in front of “granddaughter” in that famous lyric?

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-09-11 17:04:00

Did 35,000 Americans die building the Panama Canal? (p0gcywyg.mp3)

The construction of the Panama Canal linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans through Central America is considered one of the greatest engineering feats of all time. It also caused enormous human suffering and loss of life. Donald Trump claimed in a recent interview that 35,000 Americans died in the canal’s construction. But is that true? Tim Harford finds out, with the help of Matthew Parker, author of Hell’s Gorge: The Battle to Build the Panama Canal. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot (Boat Crossing on the Panama Canal in Panama Credit: Keystone-France/Gamma-Keystone via Getty Images)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-09-06 09:30:00

Covid deaths, North Sea gas and Chloe Kelly's World Cup penalty (p0gbvdsn.mp3)

Covid related deaths are rising in England and Wales - but what do the figures really tell us? Also the UK's GDP during the pandemic has been revised upwards. Tim Harford and team ask why and discuss what it tells us about the UK's economic performance compared to other countries. Is North Sea gas really four times cleaner than gas from abroad? It's a claim recently made by the government. And we ask whether Chloe Kelly's penalty shot at the World Cup was really faster than the Premier League's fastest goal last season. Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Nathan Gower, Natasha Fernandes Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-09-02 06:00:00

What percentage of our brain do we actually use? (p0gb37ph.mp3)

On this week’s episode of More or Less we interrogate a widely circulated myth relating to how much of our brain power we can access and engage. Ever heard someone say, “You know we can only use 10% of our brains, right?”. Well, they’re wrong. It’s the stuff of make believe and far-fetched movie plots. Science and evidence based research tells us so - and has, it turns out, been telling us so for decades…politely, if impatiently. So, then, if not 10%…what percentage of our brain do we actually use? From dark matter neurons to super-highway synapse and ghost cells that serve as inert echoes of our evolutionary past - with the help of two leading experts in the field, we crack open the figurative cranium of this debate and rummage around for the definitive truth. Presenter: Paul Connolly Producers: Jon Bithrey, Natasha Fernandes Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar (Artificial intelligence brain network/Getty)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-08-30 09:30:00

HS2 and electric cars, UK vs China emissions & massive maths errors (p0g9hf3n.mp3)

Can you really buy an electric car for everybody in the UK for the cost of HS2? That claim was recently made on Radio 4's Broadcasting House programme. Also we look at a viral claim that 1 in 73 people who received the Covid vaccine in England was dead by May 2022. Plus we look at the size of the UK's carbon emissions when compared with China and talk about how a recent More or Less maths error pales in comparison to one in the Guardian. Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Nathan Gower, Natasha Fernandes Production Co-ordinator: Janet Staples Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-08-26 06:00:00

How safe is the release of Fukushima nuclear plant water? (p0g8tvk0.mp3)

Water used to cool nuclear reactors at the stricken Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan is being released into the Pacific Ocean by Japanese authorities. The move has sparked protests and concerns about safety in the region and met with retaliation from near neighbour China. But how safe is the water that’s been released? Presenter Charlotte McDonald and reporter Calum Grewar investigate, with the help of Professor Jim Smith of the University of Portsmouth and Professor Gerry Thomas, formerly of Imperial College London and the Chernobyl Tissue Bank. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Calum Grewar Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-08-19 06:00:00

How many butterflies are there in the world? (p0g7jfdl.mp3)

Butterflies are a much-loved feature of summer in many parts of the world. But how many of them are there on Earth? That’s the question a young listener to More or Less wanted an answer to – and she couldn’t find the answer no matter how hard she searched the internet. Presenter Daniel Gordon enlists Professor Jane Hill, a butterfly expert at York University, England, who’s also President of the Royal Entomological Society, to try and help solve the mystery. He also consults Holly Mynott, International Officer of Butterfly Conservation, who describes the techniques used to run The Big Butterfly Count in the UK – the biggest event of its kind in the world. Producer/Presenter: Daniel Gordon Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-08-12 06:00:00

Why is it so hard to predict the outcome of competitions like the Premier League? (p0g67115.mp3)

Football competitions are kicking off all around Europe in the coming days and weeks, including the world’s most watched division: The English Premier League. We might make our predictions on who we think is going to win a sporting competition but what factors are we considering? In this programme we look at some of the most popular variables that are taken into account when making sporting predictions and why even these have drawbacks. From upcoming football leagues to the Olympic Games, Head Analyst from Nielsen Gracenote, Simon Gleave tells us what are some of the most difficult sports to predict and why. Presenter: Paul Connolly Producer: Natasha Fernandes Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinators: Debbie Richford and Janet Staples Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot Image: Premier League Trophy, Credit: Carl Recine/Reuters

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-08-05 06:00:00

Are the media exaggerating how hot it is in the Mediterranean? (p0g4wmzl.mp3)

Reports on heatwaves across the globe have dominated our newsfeeds over the last few weeks, with temperatures said to have soared over the 40C mark in many parts of Europe. But across social media, not everyone is buying it. A trickle of scepticism swelled to a tidal surge, with people questioning whether temperatures are being hyped up by the wider media to drive fear and scare-monger. In this programme, we unpick allegations made about how these temperatures are recorded - and if they are accurate. We hear from Samantha Burgess at the Copernicus Climate Change Service; Alessandro Delitala from the Sardinia Environmental Protection Agency; and Sean Buchan from Climate Action Against Disinformation. Presenter: Paul Connolly Producer: Natasha Fernandes Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-07-29 06:00:00

Data, extreme weather and climate change (p0g3k2bn.mp3)

Recent global headlines have been dominated by record temperatures across Europe, North America and parts of Asia. As extreme weather events have happened for decades, how are links to climate change made? In this programme we look at how scientists use data to draw climate conclusions and hear how that data isn’t always available, with a focus on severe flooding earlier this year in part of Central Africa. With Joyce Kimutai, principal meteorologist and climate scientist at the Kenya Meteorological Department and researcher at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College. Presenter: Kate Lamble Producer: Nathan Gower, Jon Bithrey Editor: Simon Watts Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-07-22 06:00:00

Ukraine war: A new way of calculating Russian deaths (p0g261pl.mp3)

Official information on the numbers of dead and injured in the Ukraine war has been in short supply. Little has come from either the Ukrainian or Russian sides, with estimates from western governments and intelligence agencies filling the information void. But some Russian journalists have been documenting war deaths and have come up with a new way of estimating fatalities using probate records. With contributions from David Frenkel, reporter at Mediazona and the BBC’s Russian Service correspondent Olga Ivshina.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-07-15 06:00:00

Are more adult nappies sold in Japan than baby ones? (p0g0xch4.mp3)

Japan has one of the highest rates of life expectancy and one of the lowest birth rates. But does that mean that a widely circulated claim – that more nappies aimed at adults are sold in Japan than those made for babies – is true? With guests Sarah Parsons, Senior Teaching Fellow at SOAS in London and Dr Mireya Solis, Knight Chair in Japan Studies at the Brookings Institution. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Isobel Gough Producers: Isobel Gough, Jon Bithrey Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-07-08 06:00:00

Does it take 10,000 litres of water to make a pair of jeans? (p0fzl94j.mp3)

Various claims have been made about how much water is used in the production of a pair of jeans, that cornerstone of casual clothing. With growing worries over the environmental impact of denim production, More or Less decided to investigate - with the help of journalist and researcher Elizabeth L. Cline who has written extensively on sustainability and the fashion industry. This programme was first broadcast in July 2022. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Jon Bithrey Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound engineer: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon (A worker sews blue jeans in a textile company in Xintang, China, dubbed the 'denim jeans capital of the world'. Photo: Lucas Schifres/Getty images)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-07-05 09:30:00

Immigration: A More or Less Special Programme (p0fyy3jd.mp3)

More than 1.2 million people came into the country to stay for more than 12 months in 2022. As only 560,000 left the country, this means net migration is at an all-time high. Both the Prime Minister and Home Secretary have said the number of people coming needs to come down. But who counts as an immigrant? How are the figures worked out? Charlotte McDonald will be finding out what the numbers tell us about who is coming to the UK and why. Plus - what about the people who left in 2022?

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-07-01 06:00:00

Will there be just 6 grandchildren for every 100 South Koreans? (p0fy8gj8.mp3)

An article on the UK’s Telegraph newspaper website claimed that there would be just 6 grandchildren for every 100 South Koreans today. We ask whether that figure is correct and look at why South Korea’s birth rate has fallen to one of the lowest in the world, with the help of author and mathematician Rob Eastaway and journalist and author Hawon Jung. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Bethan Ashmead Latham, Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-06-28 09:30:00

Halving inflation, Scottish tidal power and have 1 in 3 women had an abortion? (p0fxm7nh.mp3)

One of Rishi Sunak's five priorities for 2023 is to halve inflation. Given prices are still rising, we discuss whether it's going be possible. Also does Scotland have more tidal power capacity than the rest of the world combined, as has been claimed? We look at competing claims about how prepared the NHS was before the pandemic, ask whether scrapping VAT on products like tampons and e-books has actually benefitted consumers and look at the claim that one in three women in the UK has had an abortion.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-06-24 06:00:00

US National Debt: is $32 trillion a big number? (p0fwzgvl.mp3)

The level of US government debt has just surpassed 32 trillion dollars. Negotiations over raising the borrowing limit once again went down to the wire a few weeks ago. But how concerned should we all be about how much the US government borrows? We investigate with the help of Kent Smetters, professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Betsey Stevenson, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Michigan. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-06-21 09:30:00

Mortgages, birth rates and does space contribute 18% to UK GDP? (p0fw966y.mp3)

Mortgage rates have risen to 6%. But are things as bad as when rates were much higher in the 1970s and 80s? We look at just how much pain today's rises mean. Also will there be just 6 grandchildren for every 100 South Koreans today? And we look into a claim that the space industry supports 18% of the UK's economy. Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Beth Ashmead Latham, Nathan Gower, Charlotte McDonald Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-06-17 06:00:00

Is breastfeeding the key to exam success? (p0fvp9k2.mp3)

A new study by researchers at Oxford University has linked better exam results at school with being breastfed as a baby. But how much faith can we put in the findings? Tim Harford speaks to Emily Oster, professor of economics at Brown University in the US and the author of three books about pregnancy and parenting.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-06-14 09:30:00

Electric vehicles, 600 million bottles and does oral sex cause cancer? (p0ftzgbq.mp3)

There's been a lot of coverage about the risks electric cars may pose to infrastructure like bridges and car parks. We look at how much heavier EVs are. Plus we look at a new study that suggests a link between breastfeeding and improved grades at GCSE level. Also is throat cancer now primarily caused by a sexually transmitted disease - and are 600 million bottles going to litter Scotland because of disagreements with the UK government over the new Deposit Return Scheme?

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-06-10 06:00:00

Counting Hunger in India (p0ft8rr6.mp3)

How prevalent is hunger and malnutrition in India? With Indian data journalist Rukmini S, we interrogate recent claims that hunger has worsened dramatically in recent years, and explore how malnutrition affects child mortality in the world’s most populous country. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-06-07 09:30:00

Lib Dem ambulance claims, affordable rent and goat meat (p0fsmtr4.mp3)

The Liberal Democrats say 120 people a day in England died last year whilst waiting for an ambulance. We investigate whether the claim stands up to scrutiny. Also Rishi Sunak's pandemic-era scheme Eat Out To Help Out is back in the spotlight. How much did it really contribute to a second wave of infections? We look at a claim that no single woman in England on an average salary can afford to rent a home of her own. And Jonathan Agnew said on Test Match Special that goat is the most eaten meat in the world. Is he right? Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Jo Casserly, Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown (Woman looking for a flat to rent. Credit: Oscar Wong/Getty images)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-06-03 06:00:00

A short history of data (p0fs03rt.mp3)

We live in a world where data is everywhere – informing if not governing our lives. But this wealth of data didn’t just turn up overnight. Tim Harford talks to academics Chris Wiggins and Matthew Jones, whose new book How Data Happened aims to explain how the world we know today has been shaped by not just technological developments but battles around how emerging sources of data should be utilised.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-05-31 09:30:00

Food prices, net migration and beef about beef (p0frb00z.mp3)

Does Britain really have the most affordable food in Europe? That's a recent claim of the President of the National Farmers' Union. We ask if it's true and look in detail at what is driving rising food prices in the UK. We also try and make sense of the latest net migration figures, ask if dating apps are making Gen Z more single and explain why a correction to a correction on Radio 4's Farming Today wasn't quite right.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-05-28 19:00:00

Are young people more single than ever before? (p0fqp4my.mp3)

What’s the definition of being single – and how easy is it to measure? There’s a perception that young people today are more single – in a relationship sense - than ever, and dating apps are to blame. But how true is that? Ellie House investigates, with the help of Marina Adshade of the Vancouver School of Economics. Presenter: Ellie House Producers: Ellie House, Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-05-24 09:30:00

NHS waiting lists, Voter ID and measuring divorce (p0fpzk6y.mp3)

The government has trumpeted a big fall in those waiting over 18 months for hospital treatment in England. But total numbers on waiting lists have hit a new high. Also we look at how much impact the introduction of Voter ID had on turnout in May's English local elections. We ask whether Portugal really has a divorce rate of 94%. And we remember mathematician Dr Vicky Neale of Oxford University, who has died at the age of 39. The government has trumpeted a big fall in those waiting over 18 months for hospital treatment in England. But total numbers on waiting lists have hit a new high. Also we look at how much impact the introduction of Voter ID had on turnout in May's English local elections. We ask whether Portugal really has a divorce rate of 94%. And we remember mathematician Dr Vicky Neale of Oxford University, who has died at the age of 39. Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Josephine Casserly, Octavia Woodward, Ellie House Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-05-20 06:00:00

Detecting Bad Science with Data (p0fp9g1n.mp3)

For more than a decade there’ve been longstanding concerns about the credibility and reliability of science research. This “bad science” has often stemmed from poor data practice or worse. But statistics can also help us identify and understand some of what’s going wrong, whether that’s selective data-slicing or outright fabrication. Tim Harford talks to writer and broadcaster Michael Blastland about his new BBC radio documentary ‘The Truth Police’, which hears from the outsiders who are calling out fraud, malpractice and incompetence in science. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-05-13 06:00:00

Do 94% of marriages in Portugal really end in divorce? (p0fn0kgb.mp3)

Portugal has a divorce rate of 94% and India just 1%, according to a social media post about divorce in 33 countries that has gone viral. But how are these figures calculated and what do they really tell us about the quality and endurance of marriage? We investigate with guests Marina Adshade, assistant professor at the Vancouver School of Economics and Dr Cheng-Tong Lir Wang of the Institute for the Future in San Francisco. Presenter: Ben Carter Producers: Octavia Woodward and Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-05-06 06:00:00

Why is life expectancy falling in the USA? (p0fldckk.mp3)

The average life expectancy of Americans is shrinking at an alarming rate. Between 2019 and 2021, a staggering 2.7 years has been shaved off, leaving the revised figure at 76.1 years - the lowest it’s been in more than two decades. It also sees the U.S. rank 46th in the global life expectancy charts, behind Estonia and just a nose ahead of Panama. Paul Connolly is joined by John Burn Murdoch, Mary Pat Campbell and Dr Nick Mark to discuss why, on average, citizens of the world’s richest country are dying so young.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-04-29 06:00:00

How much is the Coronation crown worth? (p0fkdtfb.mp3)

Consisting of 2 kilograms of gold and 444 gemstones, the iconic St Edward’s Crown will play a central role in the coronation of King Charles III, as it has for many of his predecessors. There has been much speculation as to what the value of the centrepiece of the Crown Jewels really is. Charlotte McDonald talks to Dr Anna Kaye, historian and author of The Crown Jewels - the Official History, and Alan Hart, CEO of the Gemmological Association of Great Britain. Together they break down what we know about the crown’s cost to make in the 17th century and what it might be worth today.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-04-22 06:00:00

The Pentagon Leaks and Fox News (p0fj3qdd.mp3)

The leaking of US intelligence documents and the arrest of a 21 year old airman who authorities believe to be responsible has caused a media and diplomatic storm. We look at how the leaks were reported by primetime Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who said seven Ukrainian troops are dying for every one Russian, contrary to most estimates. And we examine an advert Fox News took out claiming to be the American TV network most trusted for news. With guests Aric Toler from investigative journalism site Bellingcat, data journalist and author G. Elliott Morris and BBC correspondent Olga Ivshina.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-04-15 06:00:00

How accurate is baby's due date? (p0fgrnhy.mp3)

Paul Connolly is expecting his second child, and the due date is just under two weeks away. In hopes of easing his anxiety every time the phone rings , he is joined by Professor Asma Khalil, Professor Chris Pettker and Doctor Melissa Wong to discover exactly how accurate his baby's due date is... Presenter: Paul Connolly Researcher: Octavia Woodward Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-04-08 06:00:00

How to better understand and explain numbers (p0ff0nn2.mp3)

The covid-19 pandemic has brought the use of statistics into everyday life in a way never seen before. Tim Harford talks to Professor Oliver Johnson, author of Numbercrunch: A Mathematician’s Toolkit for Making Sense of Your World, about his visual presentation of covid-19 related figures on Twitter and how we can all improve our understanding and use of numbers.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-04-01 06:00:00

A groundbreaking new proof for Pythagoras’ Theorem? (p0fd5qwc.mp3)

Pythagoras’ Theorem, explaining the relationship between the three sides of a right angled triangle, is one of the most famous in maths. It’s been studied and put to use for thousands of years. Now two US high school students say they’ve found a new trigonometric proof for the theorem, something many in the mathematical community believe to be impossible. We discuss Pythagoras’ Theorem, the importance of proofs in maths and the chances of this being a real breakthrough with mathematician, author and YouTuber Matt Parker.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-03-25 06:00:00

Covid vaccines and false claims about miscarriage (p0fbsv58.mp3)

Misinformation around covid-19 and vaccines is rife and as the data available increases, so do often misleading and even wild claims. This week More or Less examines multiple viral claims that the Covid 19 mRNA vaccines increase the risk of miscarriage. To explain where these incorrect figures come from and what the science actually tells us, we are joined by Dr Viki Male, senior lecturer in reproductive immunology at Imperial College London. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald, Producers: Octavia Woodward and Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: John Scott Production Co-ordinator: Helena Warwick-Cross (Photo by Matthew Horwood/Getty Images)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-03-18 06:00:00

Silicon Valley Bank: a very modern bank run (p0f9dgh9.mp3)

After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank sent jitters through the financial system, Duncan Weldon explains how it’s just the latest in the long history of bank runs. He talks to financial analyst and former banking regulator Dan Davies - author of ‘Lying for Money’ - to understand how bank runs happen, and what the repercussions of this very modern bank run might be for the global financial system. Presenter: Duncan Weldon Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinators: Helena Warwick-Cross Sound Engineer: Neva Missirian (Photo credit: Reuters)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-03-11 06:00:00

Do fungi kill three times as many people as malaria? (p0f81y70.mp3)

The smash hit TV show and video game ‘The Last of Us’ has spawned lots of curiosity about how worried we should be about the relatively unknown world of fungi. A figure in a recent BBC online article stated that fungal infections kill around 1.7 million people a year, about three times as many as malaria. In this episode we look at the both the global fight against malaria and David Denning, Professor of Infectious Diseases and Global Health at the University of Manchester explains the risks posed by fungal infections globally.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-03-04 06:00:00

Does your jewellery contain stolen Brink’s-Mat gold? (p0f6m75j.mp3)

The Brink’s-Mat robbery remains to this day one of Britain’s biggest and most audacious heists. Six armed men stole diamonds, cash and three tonnes of gold bullion from a warehouse close to London’s Heathrow Airport in November 1983. It’s now the subject of a BBC television drama, The Gold, which includes the claim that most gold jewellery bought in the UK from 1984 onwards will contain traces of that stolen gold. But how true is that? Tim Harford and team investigate, with the help of Zoe Lyons from Hatton Garden Metals and Rob Eastaway, author of Maths on the Back of an Envelope.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-03-01 09:30:00

UK vs European energy prices, falling excess deaths and is 5 grams of cocaine a lot? (p0f5y4cj.mp3)

Does the UK really have by far the highest domestic energy bills in Europe? We debunk a viral social media claim suggesting just that. Also the number of excess deaths has been falling in the UK - how positive should we be that we’re through the worst? Plus do we really have access to only 3% of rivers and 8% of the countryside in England – and after the conviction of former MP Jared O’Mara we ask whether 5 grams of cocaine is a lot.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-02-25 06:00:00

Do 29,000 coffee pods really go to landfill every minute? (p0f57xbh.mp3)

How environmentally destructive is our thirst for coffee? Tim and the team investigate a claim that 29,000 coffee pods end up in landfill globally every minute with the help of Dr Ying Jiang, a senior lecturer in bioenergy from Cranfield University in the UK.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-02-22 06:30:00

Reoffending rates, Welsh taxes and the menopause (p0f4jz98.mp3)

The Justice Secretary Dominic Raab says crime reoffending rates in England and Wales have fallen significantly since the Conservatives came to power. We ask whether he’s right and look more broadly at crime and conviction rates with former BBC home affairs correspondent Danny Shaw. Also we look at how much taxes in Wales might have to rise to pay for increases in NHS funding. We ask whether 13 million women in the UK are really menopausal. And we return to the debate that has sparked consternation among loyal listeners everywhere – should the word data be treated as plural or singular.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-02-18 06:00:00

Florence Nightingale and how she visualised data (p0f3s4cm.mp3)

Florence Nightingale became one of the icons of Victorian Britain for her work as a nurse during the Crimean War and the public health improvements she successfully campaigned for later on. Tim Harford discusses how she and her ‘Nightingale Circle’ used spectacular diagrams to explain health statistics persuasively with RJ Andrews, editor of “Florence Nightingale, Mortality and Health Diagrams”.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-02-15 09:30:00

Nurses pay, ambulance times and forgotten female economists (p0f33pf3.mp3)

How much do nurses in the UK earn compared with those elsewhere in Europe? Tim Harford and the team investigate. Also we have an update on ambulance response times, which were the worst on record in December but are showing signs of improvement. Should we use the word data in the singular or plural? The Financial Times has just changed its policy and Tim’s not happy. We look back at women who have made a key contribution to economics but have often been forgotten. And we hear how a spreadsheet error by the Office for National Statistics made the UK’s productivity appear to be one of the fastest improving in Europe.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-02-11 06:00:00

Spreadsheet disasters (p0f2csvx.mp3)

The UK’s Office for National Statistics recently published some dramatically incorrect data - all because of a spreadsheet slip-up. But that’s just the most recent in a long list of times when spreadsheets have gone wrong, often with costly consequences Stand-up mathematician Matt Parker takes us through a short history of spreadsheet mistakes.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-02-08 09:30:00

The IMF and the UK economy, NHS staff shortages and British vs English (p0f1n8gl.mp3)

The International Monetary Fund says the UK will be the only major economy to shrink in size this year. We ask how much faith we should put in the IMF’s forecasts and look at some of the big economic challenges facing the UK. Also why the headline number of job vacancies in the NHS in England doesn’t tell the whole story of staff shortages. And why has there been such a dramatic change in whether people describe themselves as British or English?

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-02-04 06:00:00

Hannah Fry on using shopping data to detect ovarian cancer (p0f0wvjg.mp3)

A new study led by Imperial College in London suggests that data from loyalty card spending in supermarkets and pharmacies could be used as a way of detecting ovarian cancer much earlier. Tim Harford discusses the findings with Professor Hannah Fry, who was most recently on the show talking about her own experience with cancer.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-02-01 09:30:00

Brexit and trade, pensioner millionaires and Hannah Fry on loyalty cards and cancer (p0f04fm1.mp3)

Has trade with the EU increased since Britain left the European Union? Tim Harford and the team look at a claim suggesting just that. There’s a row over the renaming of a street in North London previously called Black Boy Lane – but how much has it really all cost? Also are there more pensioners in “millionaire households” than pensioners in poverty. And mathematician Hannah Fry talks about a new study suggesting cases of ovarian cancer can be detected by looking at spending on loyalty cards.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-01-28 06:00:00

Are wild mammals only 4% of the mammal population? (p0dzc33k.mp3)

A widely respected and cited study says humans and livestock account for 96% of all mammals on Earth. We ask how the study was carried out and what hope there might be for the future. Plus we answer another listener question about whether most mammals are in fact rodents. With the help of Dr Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor at Our World in Data and Dr Axel Rossberg, Reader in Theoretical Ecology at Queen Mary University of London.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-01-25 09:30:00

Coffee with the Chancellor, inflation measures, GP numbers and toilet paper (p0dyj9rr.mp3)

Jeremy Hunt has pledged in a new social media video to halve the UK’s high rate of inflation. Tim Harford and the team fact check the Chancellor’s claims. Also – CPI, CPIH, RPI – which measure of inflation is best for assessing the impact of the rising cost of living? Plus has the number of GPs in England gone up or down since the start of the pandemic. And does toilet paper cause 15% of global deforestation? Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Josephine Casserly, Nathan Gower, Louise Hidalgo, Charlotte McDonald Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Helena Warwick-Cross Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-01-21 05:50:00

Does toilet paper cause 15% of global deforestation? (p0dxs0g2.mp3)

A British company has claimed that the production and use of toilet paper is responsible for 15% of deforestation globally. We investigate the claim and ask what the true environmental cost of toilet paper is. Charlotte McDonald talks to climate change scientist Professor Mary Gagen, chief adviser on forests to the World Wide Fund for Nature, the WWF. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Louise Hidalgo and Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Helena Warwick-Cross Studio Engineer: Rod Farquhar

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-01-18 09:30:00

Ambulance response times, teacher pay and Irish pubs (p0dwzrsb.mp3)

How long are people really waiting when they call 999 for an ambulance? Tim Harford and the team examine in detail the sheer scale of delays in responding to emergency calls. We also ask why the NHS is facing a crisis when it’s got more funding and more staff than before the pandemic, with the help of Ben Zaranko from the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Plus we fact check a claim from one of Britain’s leading teaching unions about pay. And are there more pubs in Ireland or Irish pubs in the rest of the world? Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Josephine Casserly, Nathan Gower, Paul Connolly Sonic Landscape: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Helena Warwick-Cross Editor: Richard Vadon Image: Andy Rain/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-01-14 07:00:00

How we shook the world of very large numbers (p0dw6pxd.mp3)

How did an edition of More or Less from 2017 end up influencing the choice of official names for extremely large numbers? We tell the tale of how an interview between presenter Tim Harford and maths whizz Rob Eastaway did just that. Also featuring Professor Richard Brown, head of metrology at the UK’s National Physical Laboratory. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Janet Staples Sound Engineer: James Beard Image: Large number, Credit: Getty Images

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-01-11 12:18:00

A&E delays and deaths, religious identity in N Ireland and naming the monster numbers (p0dvklfl.mp3)

Tim Harford and the team return for a new series of the number crunching show. With the huge pressures facing the NHS we ask how many people may be dying because of treatment delays in A&E. We hear what the latest census tells us about changing religious identity in Northern Ireland. We look at misleading claims about covid vaccines after the collapse of American football player Damar Hamlin. And we hear how More or Less has wielded its influence over how we all describe very large numbers. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Nathan Gower, Louise Hidalgo, Charlotte McDonald Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2023-01-07 06:00:00

Can China's data on covid deaths be trusted? (p0dtps3c.mp3)

When the pandemic took hold, the Chinese government imposed a Zero-Covid policy that aimed to contain the virus through mass-testing and strict lockdowns. But early last December, amidst widespread public protests, and the spread of the omicron variant to more than 200 cities, those draconian, highly restrictive measures were lifted almost entirely. For the first time in just under two years, the majority of the country’s near one-and-a-half billion citizens were free to meet, mix and mingle where they pleased, triggering what experts believe is a gargantuan exit-wave of covid infections - and related deaths. Some analysts say death rates there could be as high as15,000 per day. But the Chinese authorities are reporting 5 or fewer deaths a day. The numbers don't stack up, so More or Less's Paul Connolly speaks to some of the world's leading experts and epidemiologists to work out if China's data on covid deaths can be trusted - and, if not, what the real death toll could be.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-12-31 06:00:00

Irish pubs - a global numbers game (p0dr7pjt.mp3)

It's possible that the question we focus on in this week's programme occurred to you as you were sipping on an Irish Coffee in Bubbles O'Leary's in Kampala, Uganda: Where can the most Irish pubs be found - in Ireland? Or in all other countries combined? The popularity and sheer ubiquity of Irish pubs is a thing to behold. In 2015, the Irish Pubs Global Federation said there was approximately 6500 Irish pubs doing business outside the Emerald Isle - and our own research tells us there's at least one Irish bar in more than 160 of the world's 195 countries. But what is the secret, the recipe for global success? And can the More or Less team track down a definite number, thus answering the question some of you will have pondered whilst settling into a firelit Irish bar on a scorching hot day in rural Hawaii.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-12-24 06:00:00

Numbers of the Year 2022 (p0dqthnj.mp3)

Tim Harford discusses the numbers that help explain some of the biggest stories of the year, including the war in Ukraine, soaring inflation and a breakthrough for women’s football, with the help of Olga Ivshina, correspondent for the BBC Russian service; Chris Giles, economics editor of the Financial Times; Linda Bauld, professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh and Georgina Sturge, author and House of Commons statistician.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-12-17 06:00:00

Qatar World Cup: the pressure of penalties (p0dpv2rl.mp3)

The World Cup in Qatar is drawing to a close. Penalties and penalty shootouts have provided some of the biggest moments of the tournament. We analyse penalty data from the World Cup and ask what boosts the chance of scoring from the spot, with the help of Ben Lyttleton, author of Twelve Yards: The Art and Psychology of the Perfect Penalty.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-12-10 06:00:00

Why are data so important in determining how we live? (p0dn4nj4.mp3)

Why are good data so important to policymakers – whether they know it or not – and what happens when good data is missing? Presenter Tim Harford speaks to Georgina Sturge, a statistician at the House of Commons library in London and the author of Bad Data: How Governments, Politicians and the Rest of Us Get Misled by Numbers.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-12-03 16:00:00

The World Cup: how many migrant workers have died? (p0dlg0qg.mp3)

Qatar has been fiercely criticised over its treatment of migrant workers, many of whom have been employed to build stadiums and other infrastructure in preparation for the 2022 World Cup. We look at the wildly varying estimates of the number of migrant deaths with the help of Max Tunon, head of the Qatar office of the International Labour Organisation and Steve Cockburn, head of economic and social justice at Amnesty International.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-11-26 06:00:00

When do food shortages become a famine? (p0djvhrg.mp3)

Somalia is experiencing its worst drought for 40 years and there are warnings that millions of people need food assistance urgently. The UN body tasked with classifying levels of food security has projected a famine, although no official declaration has yet been made. We ask what data is used to formally categorise famine and explore some of the difficulties in collecting it, with the help of UN IPC Global Programme Manager Jose Lopez and Professor Laura Hammond, Pro Director of Research & Knowledge Exchange at SOAS. Presenter & producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Simon Watts Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: James Beard (Image: People affected by the worsening drought due to failed rain seasons, look on, at the Alla Futo camp for internally displaced people, in the outskirts of Mogadishu, Somalia. REUTERS/Feisal Omar)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-11-19 06:00:00

A $220 billion World Cup? (p0dh51zm.mp3)

As the FIFA World Cup in Qatar gets underway, and the newly built stadia, lavish hotels and transport networks come to life, More or Less investigates just how much the Gulf nation has spent in the lead-up to the tournament. Reports claim the figure could be as much as $220 billion - that’s more than Qatar's annual GDP, and more than ten times higher than the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. At an an estimated $15 billion, this was previously the most expensive tournament to date. With no access to Qatar’s accounts, and with very few official figures in circulation, More or Less has recruited some of the world’s leading experts in sports finance to crunch the numbers and to ask…is this really a $220 billion World Cup? Presenter: Paul Connolly Producers: Paul Connolly and Jon Bithrey Editor: Simon Watts Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar (Image: Al Wakrah Stadium, the second FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 (TM) venue: The 2022 Supreme Committee for Delivery and Legacy via Getty Images)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-11-14 16:16:00

Bonus Episode: Understand the Economy (p0dg51kh.mp3)

Tim Harford brings you the first episode of his new podcast, Understand the Economy. If you’ve been missing his dulcet tones, here’s a chance for you to have a preview of Tim Harford’s latest podcast, in which he offers really simple explanations to help make sense of the economy today. If you enjoy it, you can find the rest of the series on BBC Sounds or wherever you get your podcasts. In this episode, inflation. What is inflation, why does it matter, and is someone to blame if it goes up? Understanding inflation will help you understand why your shopping is getting more and more expensive and why prices rarely seem to go down. Tim Harford explains why the inflation figure you see on the TV might not reflect the price rises you’re experiencing and economic historian Victoria Bateman tells us why having a boat load of silver coins isn’t always a good thing. Everything you need to know about the economy and what it means for you. This podcast will cut through the jargon to bring you clarity and ensure you finally understand all those complicated terms and phrases you hear on the news. Inflation, GDP, Interest rates, and bonds, Tim Harford and friends explain them all. We’ll ensure you understand what’s going on today, why your shopping is getting more expensive or why your pay doesn’t cover your bills. We’ll also bring you surprising histories, from the war hungry Kings who have shaped how things are counted today to the greedy merchants flooding Spain with Silver coins. So if your eyes usually glaze over when someone says ‘cutting taxes stimulates growth’, fear no more, we’ve got you covered. Producer: Phoebe Keane Researcher: Drew Hyndman Editor: Clare Fordham Find all the episodes here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001dwr7 A BBC Long Form Audio Production for BBC Radio 4

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-11-12 06:00:00

Improving the numbers in the news (p0df8lby.mp3)

How can journalists improve their use of statistics in their reporting of the world around us? It’s a question US academics John Bailer and Rosemary Pennington tackle in their new book Statistics Behind the Headlines. They join Tim Harford to talk about how journalism can be improved by asking the right questions about numbers and using them in the wider context of a story. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Simon Watts Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot (Image: Electronic and paper media: scanrail/Getty)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-11-05 06:00:00

Lula’s “zero deforestation” plan for the Amazon (p0dcwyb9.mp3)

Lula Da Silva has pledged “zero deforestation” in the Amazon as he prepares to become Brazil’s next president, in contrast to the policies of outgoing leader Jair Bolsonaro under whom the destruction of the rainforest has soared. On this edition of More or Less we ask how much of the Amazon has been lost and whether Lula’s aim of zero deforestation can be achieved. Presenter and producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Simon Watts: Sound engineer: David Crackles Production Co-ordinator: Jacqui Johnson (Image: Aerial view of the deforestation of the Amazon: Reuters/Ueslei Marcelino/File Photo)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-10-29 06:00:00

Can China’s GDP data be trusted? (p0db93yk.mp3)

This week, China released its third quarter GDP figure. At 3.9%, its rate of economic growth is better than many analysts expected, but still significantly short of the 5.5% target the Chinese government had set itself. There was an unprecedented delay in releasing this particular GDP stat - and that delay coincided with the 20th Chinese Communist Party congress. President Xi Jinping was reappointed for a historic third term at the twice-a-decade gathering. Some analysts found the delay suspicious. Did President Xi postpone the release of the GDP figures so it wouldn’t tarnish the congress? And can the figure of 3.9 per cent be trusted anyway? Paul Connolly investigates with the help of John Burn Murdoch, Chief Data Reporter at The Financial Times; Associate Professor of Government at Cornell, Jeremy Lee Wallace and Dr Linda Yueh, Oxford University economist and author. Presenter and Producer: Paul Connolly Editor: Simon Watts Programme Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: Neva Missirian (Image: Chinese President Xi Jinping: Mark R Cristino/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-10-22 06:00:00

Do half of new books really sell fewer than twelve copies? (p0d8mr8x.mp3)

A US government lawyer recently caused a stir in the publishing world when he said during a high profile legal trial that half of all new trade titles – books aimed at a general audience - sell a dozen copies or less. Tim Harford investigates with the help of Kristen McLean from the NPD Books group. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Octavia Woodward, Jon Bithrey Editor: Emma Rippon Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot (Image: Stack of books on display at the bookstore: bitterfly/Getty)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-10-15 06:00:00

Ben Bernanke and the magic of banking (p0d70l6t.mp3)

The former head of the US Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke is named as one of three winners of the 2022 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his work on how banking collapses were a major factor in the Great Depression of the 1930s. He shares the prize with two fellow US academics, Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig. Tim Harford discusses the significance of their work focusing on the role of banks and why their smooth functioning is so important to society. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Emma Rippon Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: James Beard (Image: Former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke speaks after he was named among three U.S. economists awarded the 2022 Nobel Economics Prize, during a news conference at the Brookings Institution in Washington, U.S., October 10, 2022. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-10-08 06:00:00

Catching Chess Cheats with Data (p0d5gfc7.mp3)

A cheating scandal is currently rocking the world of chess, as World Champion Magnus Carlsen accuses the young American Hans Niemann of cheating. A bombshell new report has said that Niemann is likely to have cheated in over 100 games online, and uses data to support its argument. So how is statistics being used to catch cheats in chess - and just how prevalent might cheating be at the highest levels of the game? David Edmonds finds out. Presenter: David Edmonds Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot (Image: US international grandmaster Hans Niemann, St. Louis, Missouri, on October 6, 2022: Photo by Tim Vizer /AFP via Getty Images)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-10-07 15:27:00

Teens and antidepressants, stamp duty savings and earthquake probabilities (p0d5f4zg.mp3)

A survey from a mental health charity suggested that more than a third of British teenagers had been prescribed antidepressants. We debunk the figure. Also we investigate a tweet from the UK Treasury about how much homebuyers will save in stamp duty. Plus how Mexico has been hit by earthquakes three times on the same day of the year - what are the chances? And how incorrect figures from the government have given a false picture of the number of cars on Britain’s minor roads. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Nathan Gower, Charlotte McDonald Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: James Beard

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-10-05 09:30:00

Teens and antidepressants, stamp duty savings and earthquake probabilities (p0d4jyr2.mp3)

A survey from a mental health charity suggested that more than a third of British teenagers had been prescribed antidepressants. We debunk the figure. Also we investigate a tweet from the UK Treasury about how much homebuyers will save in stamp duty. Plus how Mexico has been hit by earthquakes three times on the same day of the year - what are the chances? And how incorrect figures from the government have given a false picture of the number of cars on Britain’s minor roads. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Nathan Gower, Charlotte McDonald Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: James Beard

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-10-01 06:00:00

NASA’s asteroid collision: how many asteroids are really out there? (p0d3r5fx.mp3)

This week NASA slammed a spacecraft into an asteroid in the hope of diverting its course. The Double Asteroid Redirection Test or DART mission will help scientists understand how easy it would be protect Earth if one was headed in our direction. More Or Less first discussed this in 2016 with a little help from the movie Armageddon – with listeners getting in touch once again we ask how many asteroids are really out there and how dangerous they might be to Earth. Presenters: Charlotte McDonald and Simon Maybin Producer: Charlotte McDonald Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: James Beard (Image: 3D rendering of a swarm of Meteorites or asteroids entering the Earth atmosphere: ratpack223/ Getty)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-09-28 09:30:00

Falling pound, the Queen’s funeral and is 0.5 on the Richter scale a big number? (p0d2zypz.mp3)

The value of the pound against other currencies has been incredibly volatile ever since the Chancellor’s ‘mini-budget’. We ask how much we should worry and look at how much taxes will really fall. Also did 4.1 billion people really watch the Queen’s funeral? Gas prices are falling – so why aren’t energy bills? There are early signs that new covid variants could cause another spike in cases over the winter. And with the government lifting a moratorium on fracking, we ask how seismic a number the current limit of 0.5 on the Richter scale actually is. Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Charlotte McDonald, Nathan Gower Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: James Beard

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-09-24 06:00:00

Ukraine’s progress in numbers (p0d27x90.mp3)

Ukraine has reportedly recaptured nearly 10,000 square kilometres of territory that had been occupied by Russia. We ask where the numbers come from and what they mean. Plus with Norway supplanting Russia to become Europe’s biggest supplier of natural gas, we ask how much money the country is making from the increased demand and higher prices. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-09-22 18:14:00

Ukraine offensive, weak pound & how much do women really exercise (p0d21pk3.mp3)

Ukraine has reportedly recaptured nearly 10,000 square kilometres of territory that had been occupied by Russia. We ask where the numbers come from, what they mean and why everyone is comparing them to the size of Greater London. We ask how much money Norway is making out of the current energy crisis. Also why is the pound so weak against the dollar, some odd claims about women and exercise and does it really take 20,000 uses for an organic cotton bag to become more environmentally friendly than a plastic bag? Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Charlotte McDonald, Nathan Gower Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-09-21 09:30:00

Ukraine offensive, weak pound & how much do women really exercise (p0d1gvnt.mp3)

Ukraine has reportedly recaptured nearly 10,000 square kilometres of territory that had been occupied by Russia. We ask where the numbers come from, what they mean and why everyone is comparing them to the size of Greater London. We ask how much money Norway is making out of the current energy crisis. Also why is the pound so weak against the dollar, some odd claims about women and exercise and does it really take 20,000 uses for an organic cotton bag to become more environmentally friendly than a plastic bag? Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Charlotte McDonald, Nathan Gower Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-09-17 06:00:00

How bad is fashion for the environment? (p0d0vcdh.mp3)

Is fashion really the second most polluting industry after oil and does it account for 10% of greenhouse gas emissions? Sustainable fashion journalist Alden Wicker does some fashion fact checking with Adam Fleming, presenter of BBC podcast and Radio 4 programme Antisocial. And reporter Charlotte McDonald revisits a claim made in an edition of More or Less last month about the effectiveness of using condoms as a form of contraception. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar (Image: Models display outfits / BBC images/Susana Vera/Reuters)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-09-14 09:30:00

Energy crisis plan, imperial measures survey, gardens v national parks (p0d05qb7.mp3)

One of Liz Truss's first acts as Prime Minister was to announce a giant plan to protect domestic energy users from huge rises in wholesale gas and electricity costs, meaning a typical household will pay about £1000 less than otherwise would have been the case. We ask how much the Energy Price Guarantee will cost the government and also explain what a “typical” household really is. A consultation has opened into whether we’d like more of our goods and services priced in imperial measures – but some listeners are suggesting a survey on the issue is biased against metric. And we examine a claim made on the BBC’s Springwatch programme that all of the gardens in Newcastle are bigger than the combined size of our national parks. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Nathan Gower, Charlotte McDonald Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-09-10 06:00:00

Is a third of Pakistan really under water? (p0czg539.mp3)

Pakistan is battling a huge natural disaster as a result of heavy monsoon rains. It’s been widely reported that a third of the country is under water. But can that really be the case? Featuring the BBC’s correspondent in Pakistan Pumza Fihlani and Dr Simon Cook, a senior lecturer in Environmental Science at the University of Dundee. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineers: Graham Puddifoot & James Beard (Image: aerial photograph of flooded residential areas after heavy monsoon rains in Dera Allah Yar, Balochistan province. Credit: Getty/Fida Hussain)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-09-07 09:30:00

Pakistan flooding, UK power prices and Boris’s broadband claim (p0cys5bw.mp3)

Devastating floods have wreaked havoc across Pakistan after the heaviest monsoon rains in at least a decade. But is a third of the country really under water, as has been claimed? Also why do electricity prices in the UK rise in line with gas prices when we get so much of our power from other sources like nuclear, wind and solar? As criminal barristers go on strike in England and Wales, we ask if those starting in the profession really earn £12,200 a year. And as Boris Johnson waves goodbye to Downing Street, we investigate his claim that 70% of the UK now has access to gigabit broadband. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Nathan Gower, Charlotte McDonald Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-09-03 06:00:00

Can we use maths to beat the robots? (p0cy213n.mp3)

Daily advances in the technology of artificial intelligence may leave humans playing catch-up – but in at least one area we can still retain an edge, mathematics. However it’ll require changes in how we think about and teach maths and we may still have to leave the simple adding up to the computers. Junaid Mubeen, author of Mathematical Intelligence, tells Tim Harford what it’ll take to stay ahead of the machines. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Editor: Richard Vadon (Image: Digital generated image of artificial intelligence robot scanning the data: Getty / Andriy Onufriyenko)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-08-31 09:30:00

Energy prices, excess deaths and the race to count to 200 (p0cx9cbm.mp3)

With energy prices in the UK spiralling, Tim Harford asks whether there is an easy and realistic way for bills to be cut. Also the number of excess deaths in the UK is rising – we’ll hear how much covid is still to blame. We return to the subject of counting in twenties, this time hearing how the Welsh language mixes traditional and decimal systems. And we debunk some spurious social media claims around Liverpool players and asthma medication.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-08-27 06:00:00

Kenya’s Election Rounding Error (p0cwpvdr.mp3)

When the official figures were announced in Kenya’s presidential election, it looked like the total percentage share of the vote for each candidate came to more than 100%. As this should not be possible, many wondered if up to 142,000 votes might be miscounted. We explore what turns out to be a simple mathematical misunderstanding of the numbers.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-08-20 06:00:00

The numbers behind “natural” birth control (p0cv3bvl.mp3)

Videos on TikTok have been claiming that so-called “natural” birth control methods can be 99% effective. We examine what we really know, and how we know it.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-08-13 06:00:00

Is opinion polling broken? (p0cshm4m.mp3)

The opinion polling industry’s reputation has taken a battering in recent years, as high profile slip-ups in the US presidential election exposed frailties. So should we write them off? Not according to Economist data journalist G Elliot Morris, who’s written a book called Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2022-08-06 06:00:00

Debunking the Liverpool FC Conspiracy Theory (p0crdghc.mp3)

Ahead of the opening of the new season of the English Premier League, baseless rumours and dodgy statistics circulating online have implied that Liverpool FC use asthma medication to enhance their players’ performance. Ben Carter speaks to sports scientist Professor John Dickinson to examine the science that disproves these rumour, and tracks down its original source with the help of Mike Wendling from the World Service's Trending programme. Presenter: Ben Carter Producer: Richard Vadon