Recent Entries

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-04-26 06:00:00

Are 80% of women really only attracted to 20% of men? (p0l6hw9y.mp3)

Netflix’s psychological drama Adolescence has started a debate about teenage boys and misogyny in modern society. It tells the story of a seemingly normal young boy, Jamie, who is arrested after the brutal murder of a girl in his class.

The series focuses on how young men are being radicalised against women by various podcasts, blogs and forums that make up the anti-feminist movement, the so-called ‘manosphere’. These podcasts often give men tips about how to be an ‘alpha’ male and promote the idea that feminism has set back men's rights. They use a range of material to back up their claims, including statistics. One such statistic was quoted in Adolescence and used to explain Jamie’s hatred towards women - that 80% of women are only attracted to 20% of men. Where does this claim come from and is it true? We look into the alleged maths behind the misogyny. Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-04-19 06:00:00

The pioneers of proof (p0l4ykkw.mp3)

Here are More or Less we’ll all about the facts. Every day we use a toolkit of known proofs to try and answer our listeners’ questions. But who do we have to thank for this toolkit and how did they set about proving the unknown? Luckily for us mathematician Adam Kucharski has just written a book about this very topic called ‘Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty’. Join us to hear more about some of the proof pioneers included in his book, from estimating the number of German tanks during WW2 to an unsung heroine of statistics. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-04-12 06:00:00

How much is a human life worth? (p0l3w8cp.mp3)

What is the cash value of a human life?

That’s the question at the heart of The Price of Life, a book by journalist Jenny Kleeman. It turns out that there’s not just one price, there are many - depending on exactly how that life is being created, traded or destroyed. Tim Harford talks to Jenny about what she discovered.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-04-04 18:00:00

Trump tariffs: All about the deficits (p0l2j62v.mp3)

US President Donald Trump has announced sweeping tariffs on global trade, adding taxes of as much as 50% to imports from some countries.

The tariffs, he says, are “reciprocal” – calculated to address currency manipulation and trade barriers that other countries place on the US.

However, when you look at how the new tariffs were actually calculated, that claim does not add up.

Tim Harford speaks to Thomas Sampson, an associate professor at the London School of Economics, to understand what is going on.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Lizzy McNeill and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-04-02 09:00:00

Is one in four people in the UK disabled? (p0l1q67d.mp3)

Donald Trump is raising tariffs on Canada, but has his northern neighbour done anything to deserve them?

In her Spring Statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that the UK’s fiscal “headroom” was, again, £9.9bn. We explore this curious coincidence.

Is it true that one in four people in the UK is disabled? And what does that mean for the state of our workforce?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-03-29 06:00:00

What’s Trump’s problem with Canada? (p0l0zszv.mp3)

Neighbours, everybody needs good neighbours, and since the end of the Second World War that’s exactly what the US and Canada have been. They’ve enjoyed free trade agreements, close knit economic ties - and not so friendly ice hockey matches. But recently this relationship has soured, with President Trump calling them “one of the nastiest countries to deal with”. It looks like the era of mostly free trade is over, with a raft of tariffs set to come into force on April the 2nd, or “liberation day” a Donald Trump calls it. But is President Trump right about the trading relationship between the two countries? What does he mean when he claims that “the US subsidises Canada $200 billion a year”? Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Studio manager: Andrew Mills

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-03-26 09:00:00

Could a 2% wealth tax raise £24bn? (p0l09t2n.mp3)

Some Labour politicians have been calling for a wealth tax, claiming a 2% tax could raise £24bn. Where are the numbers from and do they add up?

A listener asked why housing in the UK is the oldest in Europe. We explain what’s going on.

The Office for National Statistics has changed how it measures the value of pensions and knocked £2 trillion off its estimates of wealth. Not everyone thinks it was a good change. We find out why.

And Lent is here, but how long is the Christian fasting period? We look at the history of a very flexible 40 days.

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and the world around us.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-03-22 06:00:00

What are the chances of an asteroid hitting earth in 2032? (p0kzlmf9.mp3)

On 27 December 2024, astronomers spotted an asteroid that was potentially heading towards earth. Named 2024 YR4, it was estimated to be between 40m and 90m across, with the potential to cause massive damage if it hit a populated area of the planet.

The chances of that happening, however, seemed to fluctuate significantly - ranging from 1% to a peak of 3%, before falling to virtually zero.

Tim Harford investigates what was going on, with the help of Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Hal Haines Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-03-19 09:00:00

Why are more people claiming disability benefits? (p0kyy5ky.mp3)

More working age people are claiming disability benefits. What's driving the trend?

Is it true that the UK imprisons more people for their social media posts than Russia does?

One of the country’s most important data sources has been falling apart. We find out why.

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nathan Gower Series producers: Charlotte McDonald and Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-03-17 09:00:00

How did lockdown impact children? (p0ky81k6.mp3)

In March 2020, the covid pandemic forced the UK into lockdown. Schools closed, universities went online and the economy shut down.

It slowly became clear that young people were not falling victim to the virus in significant numbers - they made up a fraction of a percent of the overall death toll.

But their lives were radically changed - most spending these formative ages stuck at home as the pandemic raged. Politicians and academics worried about the long term impact this would have on their chances in life.

Five years on, Tim Harford delves into the data to try to work out what we can say with confidence about the effect of the lockdown on the children and young adults who lived through it.

On questions of education levels, job prospects and mental health, what story does the best evidence show us?

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-03-15 06:00:00

What is an IQ map and can we trust them? (p0ky8tjr.mp3)

You may have seen a map circulated on social media that claims to show the average IQ of different nations.

If you look closely these numbers vary dramatically, with incredibly low scores in developing countries, including many in Africa.

Unsurprisingly the map is often used as a way to bolster arguments about racial or national superiority.

However, when you look at the data behind the claims the whole thing falls apart. We dive into the methods behind the map and ask whether it’s even possible to accurately put a number on intelligence. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-03-12 18:30:00

DOGE, apples and irregular migrants (p0kxrzvn.mp3)

It’s been 12 weeks since President Trump announced the formation of DOGE, the so-called department of Government efficiency. We fact-check various claims connected with the drive to route out inefficiency. Listeners asked us to investigate the claim that 1 in 12 Londoners is an illegal immigrant. We look into the claim that imported New Zealand apples have a smaller carbon footprint than British grown apples. Plus - did VAT on private schools really boost the rate of inflation, or was that just a media concoction?

Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nathan Gower and Josh McMinn Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-03-08 06:00:00

Is there really $500bn of Rare Earths in Ukraine? (p0kwvb59.mp3)

As part of the fast-moving argument over US military support to Ukraine, the US demanded $500bn worth of access to what was variously reported as Ukraine’s rare earths or rare metals or rare minerals. But is there that amount of minerals in the ground?

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer and Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-03-05 09:00:00

Defence Spending, Rare Earths and Trunk Truths (p0kw292m.mp3)

Has the US really sent Ukraine $350 billion for its war effort? Is a $500billion cut of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals a good deal? How will the UK fund the governments ambitions to raise defence spending to 3%? But most important of all - how many muscles are in an elephant’s trunk?

Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower and Josh McMinn Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-03-01 06:00:00

Has the US really given Ukraine more aid than Europe? (p0kvbltl.mp3)

As negotiations to end the Ukraine war rumble on, Donald Trump seems equally interested in talking about the past, repeatedly claiming that the US has given much more aid to Ukraine than Europe has, and that Europe’s aid took the form of a loan that they’ll be getting back.

Emmanuel Macron has publicly contradicted the US President - so who’s correct?

Nathan Gower speaks to Taro Nishikawa, project lead at the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker to get the true picture.

Presenter / Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: James Beard

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-02-22 06:00:00

Are 150 year olds getting social security payments? (p0kssk73.mp3)

Last week Elon Musk revealed that he had been through the Social Security Agencies database and found millions of people aged over 100.

The vast majority of these people are dead, but their accounts and social security numbers remain live.

Elon claimed that he had uncovered ‘the biggest fraud ever’ prompting some news outlets to speculate that billions of dollars might be being paid to these dead people every month.

But is it true? We look at whether this is new information and what the data actually tells us.

Produced and presented by: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: James Beard

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-02-15 06:00:00

Has the US sent $50 million worth of condoms to Gaza? (p0krbbfm.mp3)

On the 25th January, the US Press Secretary announced that in their bid to stop ‘fraud’ and waste DOGE had cancelled $50 million worth of condoms being sent to Gaza by the United States Agency for International Development (aka USAID).

President Trump later repeated this claim, adding on that Hamas were using said condoms to make bombs to fire at Israel.

On the 7th of February the USAID website was taken down.

We fact check this claim and find out how much of the US budget was spent on USAID programmes.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Research: Josh McMinn Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: David Crackles Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-02-08 06:00:00

Are black babies in the US really more likely to die under the care of white doctors? (p0kpvfbf.mp3)

Babies born in the US to Black Hispanic or African American mothers are more likely to die than any other ethnic group in America.

That is a fact.

But the reason why this happens is unclear. In 2020 a study came out that claimed that black babies attended by white doctors after birth were twice as likely to die than white babies attended by white doctors.

People jumped to the conclusion that the race of the doctor was leading to the different outcomes. But when you delve into the numbers, a very different picture starts to emerge.

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Steve Greenwood Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-02-01 06:00:00

Are quantum computers already super-powerful? (p0kncs6l.mp3)

Google claim their latest quantum computer chip is able to process something in five minutes it would take a normal computer 10 septillion years to figure out.

As this is a massive amount longer than the entire history of the known universe, that seems to suggest the chip is extremely powerful.

But when you understand what’s going on, the claim doesn’t seem quite so impressive. Dr Peter Leek, a quantum computer scientist from Oxford University, explains the key context.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Andrew Garratt Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-01-25 06:00:00

Did Trump make billions with his meme-coin? (p0klwhtz.mp3)

Just before being inaugurated as US president for the second time, Donald Trump launched something called a “meme-coin”. This is a bespoke cryptocurrency token featuring a picture of Donald Trump. A billion of them may eventually be created.

Newspaper headlines claimed that the Trump meme-coin had made the president billions of dollars wealthier. But it is far from clear that this is the case. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Mike Etherden Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-01-18 05:50:00

Can redheads handle 25% more pain than brunettes? (p0kkfjts.mp3)

What has the colour of your hair got to do with your capacity to withstand pain?

We investigate the claim, which regularly circulates on social media, that natural redheads are 25% tougher than their brunette peers.

Pain expert Jeff Mogil explains how it all comes down to something called MC1R.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-01-11 06:00:00

Do 79% of Swedish asylum seekers go on holiday to the country they fled from? (p0khwych.mp3)

The claim that 79% of asylum seekers in Sweden go on holiday in their home country has been repeated regularly on social media. It’s used to argue that recent refugees are being disingenuous about the danger they face in the country they have fled from. But when you look at the survey the claim is based on, you see the stat in a very different way. We speak to Hjalmar Strid, who ran the survey for polling company Novus, and Tino Sanandaji from Bulletin, the online news site which published it.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2025-01-04 06:00:00

Numbers of the year part 2 (p0kbvbk8.mp3)

We asked and you responded, this edition of ‘numbers of the year’ are from you. our loyal listeners. We scoured the inboxes to find three fascinating numbers that say something about the world we live in now and put them to our experts. Tune if you want to hear about rising global temperatures, what Taylor Swift has in common with 65 years olds and facts about fax (machines).

Contributors: Amanda Maycock, University of Leeds Jennifer Dowd, University of Oxford

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Vicky Baker and Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-12-28 06:00:00

Numbers of the year 2024 (p0kbv26c.mp3)

It’s that time of year again, the time when we ask some of our favourite statistically-inclined people for their numbers of the year. We present them to you - from falling birth rates in India to children saved by vaccines.

Contributors: RukminiS, Data for India Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Cambridge University, Hannah Ritchie, Our World in Data.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Lizzy McNeill and Vicky Baker Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Donald McDonald and Rod Farquhar

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-12-21 06:00:00

Did Mussolini make the trains run on time? (p0kdbcpr.mp3)

“Say what you like about Mussolini but he did make the trains run on time.” This phrase is the political equivalent of “every cloud has a silver lining” – but does it have any factual basis? Mussolini’s dictatorship in Italy was full of atrocities, brutal suppression and propaganda. Did it also create a more efficient railway network? We speak to Professor Ruth Ben-Ghiat about the truth of the claim and why the Mussolini regime wanted us to believe it. Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Lizzy McNeill Researcher: Esme Winterbotham Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Master: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison.

Image: Benito Mussolini in his train studying maps. (Photo by ullstein picture/ullstein picture via Getty Images)

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-12-14 06:00:00

How many Americans live ‘paycheck to paycheck’? (p0kbxr3y.mp3)

Are most Americans barely holding their head above water when it comes to personal finances? That’s what various US politicians and news outlets keep suggesting. They can’t stop using a statistic about people living “paycheck to paycheck”. But what does this really mean?

We go behind the headlines to unpick the numbers. Contributor: Ben Krauss, journalist Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Vicky Baker and Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Engineer: Andrew Mills Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-12-07 06:00:00

Did one in 10 Greeks die in World War Two? (p0k958nk.mp3)

When World War Two came to Greece, a period of terrible human suffering followed. There was a brutal battle with Italian and then Nazi forces, followed by an occupation in which thousands were executed and a terrible famine swept the nation.

There’s an often repeated number that appears to capture the brutality of this time – that 10% of the Greek population died during the war.

We investigate where this statistic comes from and whether it is true.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-11-30 06:00:00

Can Elon Musk save the US Government $2 trillion? (p0k7vs3y.mp3)

President Elect Donald Trump has created a new government advisory group – the Department of Government Efficiency or ‘DOGE’ - to help cut the US budget.

The world richest man, Elon Musk, will co-head the department and has pledged to cut ‘at least $2 trillion’ to ‘balance the budget’. But is this possible? We talk to Professor Linda Bilmes about what DOGE could or couldn’t do and how she balanced the budget in the 1990’s.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Mix: Andrew Mills Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-11-23 06:00:00

Do fossil fuels get $7 trillion in subsidies? (p0k69jc5.mp3)

Governments around the world have promised to fight climate change. But are they also pumping an absolutely massive amount of money into subsidies for fossil fuels? In 2022, an IMF working paper estimated that global subsidies for fossil fuels totalled $7 trillion. But when you dig into that research, you find that this number might not mean what you think it does. We explain how they reached that conclusion, with the help of Angela Picciariello from the International Institute for Sustainable Development, and Nate Vernon, one of the co-authors of the IMF paper.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-11-16 06:00:00

Did 20 million votes really go missing in the US election? (p0k4vghj.mp3)

Just hours after Donald Trump claimed victory in the US presidential election, rumours started swirling that something was afoot. A graph went viral on social media that appeared to show there were 20 million more votes cast in 2020 than in the 2024 election. Where had these supposedly “missing” votes gone? Conspiracy theorists on both sides of the political spectrum began shouting claims of fraud. The answer, it turns out, is rather more straightforward. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Mix: Hal Haines Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-11-09 06:00:00

Do we have enough clothes for the next six generations? (p0k37clx.mp3)

A huge quantity of clothing is produced every year around the world. But is so much made that there are already enough tops, trousers, skirts and all the rest to clothe humanity for decades into the future?

That’s a claim that has been percolating around the internet recently, that there are already enough clothes for the next six generations.

Tim Harford and Beth Ashmead Latham explore the source of this claim and, with help from Sabina Lawreniuk from Nottingham University, find that the evidence behind it is far from persuasive.

Presenter: Tim Harford and Bethan Ashmead Latham Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-11-02 06:00:00

What can economics learn from sport? (p0k1p1tp.mp3)

The great theories of economics seem to have great explanatory power, but the actual world is often far too complicated and messy to fully test them out.

Professor Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, an economist at the London School of Economics has an answer – sport. In the contained setting of competitive sport, he says, the rules are clear and you know who is doing what. This means, with some analysis, you can see vibrant illustrations of well-known economic theories playing out before your eyes.

Ignacio talks to Tim Harford about some of his favourite economic theories, demonstrated in action in sporting competition.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: John Scott Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-30 12:20:00

Are older drivers more dangerous? (p0k14kz3.mp3)

Could the cut in winter fuel payments cost thousands of lives? Is it really true that criminals sentenced to three years will be out of prison in two months? Are older drivers more dangerous than young ones? Do Southeastern Railway shift 50 million leaves from their lines?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Bethan Ashmead Latham and Nathan Gower Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-30 09:30:00

Are older drivers more dangerous? (p0k0z1qx.mp3)

Could the cut in winter fuel payments cost thousands of lives? Is it really true that criminals sentenced to three years will be out of prison in two months? Are older drivers more dangerous than young ones? Do Southeastern Railway shift 50 million leaves from their lines?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Bethan Ashmead Latham and Nathan Gower Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-26 06:00:00

Is Trump right about violent crime in Venezuela and the US? (p0k06l8c.mp3)

On the campaign trail for the US presidency, former president Donald Trump has been saying that the US is becoming a more dangerous than Venezuela.

He also claims that the crime data for the US that the FBI collects is missing the most violent cities.

Is he right? Tim Harford investigates, with the help of Bastian Herre from Our World in Data and Jay Albanese from Virginia Commonwealth University.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-23 11:50:00

Do US crime statistics miss out the most violent cities? (p0jzldsd.mp3)

Was an MP wrong about the number of people who pay capital gains tax?

Why is 2% the magic number for the rate of inflation?

Donald Trump says US crime figures are fake. Are they?

How do you work out how many buffaloberries a bear eats in a day?

And we fact-check a claim about the prevalence of suicide among GPs. For information and support follow this link: https://www.bbc.co.uk/actionline

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Nathan Gower and Bethan Ashmead Latham Series Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-19 06:00:00

Nobel prize: Why are some countries so much richer than others? (p0jypwdr.mp3)

The question of why some countries are rich and some poor has been described as the most important question in economics.

Perhaps that is why the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson for their work on the importance of institutions in the economic fortunes of nation states.

Tim Harford explains the economic theory that underpins their award.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Tim Harford Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-16 09:30:00

When are numbers like a horse at a gymkhana? (p0jy0mzs.mp3)

Can we teach BBC political editor Chris Mason some new maths skills? Do 60 of the UK’s richest people pay 100% tax? Have water bills fallen in real terms since 2010? When it comes to HPV and cervical cancer, is zero a small number?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower and Bethan Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-12 06:00:00

Uncertainty, probability and double yoked eggs (p0jx6k2y.mp3)

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter is one of the great communicators of probability and uncertainty.

His new book, The Art of Uncertainty, explains how to approach uncertainty, luck, probability and ignorance.

Tim Harford talks to Sir David about double yoked eggs, the Bay of Pigs, and his top tips for politicians who want to communicate evidence and uncertainty. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: John Scott Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-09 09:30:00

Should the government target persnuffle? (p0jwdkdq.mp3)

Are childhood obesity rates going down? Do 35 million birds die every year in the UK after hitting windows? How much money could the Chancellor find by changing the debt rule? And Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter contemplates the probability of his own conception.

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and in life.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte MacDonald Producers: Bethan Ashmead Latham, Natasha Fernandes and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-05 06:00:00

Are 672 billion pounds of corn eaten in the US every year? (p0jvlnhm.mp3)

National Geographic magazine recently wrote that “people in the United States eat more than 672 billion pounds of corn per year, which breaks down to more than 2,000 pounds per person annually”.

Is this really true?

Tim Harford investigates all the things that we don’t eat, that are counted in this number.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-02 09:30:00

How do you breed seventeen octillion rats? (p0jtyhjt.mp3)

Are GPs really working less hours per week? Does Wetherspoons really pay one in every £1000 of tax in the UK? Are more people in the UK economically inactive? How long does it take two rats to produce 17 octillion rats?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham Producer: Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-09-28 06:00:00

The puzzles you’re meant to get wrong (p0jt6q58.mp3)

Why do some puzzles make us immediately leap to the wrong conclusion?

That’s the subject of Alex Bellos’ new book Think Twice, which has page after page of questions designed to deceive.

Alex sets Tim Harford some of his favourite puzzles.

Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison and Janet Staples Sound mix: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-09-25 09:30:00

Could the winter fuel cut cost more than it saves? (p0jskz96.mp3)

The government is encouraging pensioners to claim pension credit in order to remain eligible for winter fuel payments. Will people sign up - and might that end up costing the exchequer more than it saves?

The Office for National Statistics has downgraded the status of a new statistic aiming to measure how many people are transgender. What went wrong?

Cancer appears to be on the rise in people under 50. But are more people dying?

And try your hand at a puzzle you’re likely to get wrong.

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-09-21 06:00:00

Do 85% of the world’s population practice a religion? (p0jrsd1q.mp3)

We don’t usually do god on More or Less, but one listener got in touch to ask us to investigate a stat used by an Anglican priest on a BBC radio programme.

Speaking on the “Thought for the Day” slot, Reverend Lucy Winkett said that around 85% of the world's population practice a religion.

Is this true? We speak to Conrad Hackett, from the Pew Research Center, and the person whose research is the source for the claim.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-09-18 09:30:00

How do you count millionaires? (p0jr5453.mp3)

Can we be sure that thousands of millionaires are leaving the UK? How much do asylum seekers cost the state? Who will win a geeky bet on private school pupil numbers? What does a string quartet teach us about the woes of the National Health Service?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Caroline Bayley, Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-09-14 06:00:00

Nate Silver: Do risk-takers run the world? (p0jqbgds.mp3)

Big stakes poker player and elections analyst Nate Silver is no stranger to a calculated risk.

In his new book, On The Edge, he makes the case that people willing to take massive calculated risks are winning in the modern economy.

Tim Harford talks to Nate about the mindset that’s driving hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and silicon valley investors.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-09-11 09:30:00

How long does it take to turn around an oil tanker? (p0jpprw6.mp3)

Do illegal migrants receive more in benefits than pensioners? Was Energy Secretary Ed Miliband right to celebrate a “record breaking” renewable energy auction? Is one divided by zero infinity? Why don’t we spend more on evidence that government spending works? And how long does it actually take to turn around an oil tanker?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Natasha Fernandes, Bethan Ashmead-Latham and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-09-07 06:00:00

Who pays when trade wars heat up? (p0jnyr5k.mp3)

Donald Trump wants new tariffs on goods coming into the US, describing them as a tax on other countries. The Democrats are no stranger to trade tariffs themselves, with Joe Biden having added them to numerous goods coming into the US from China.

We talk to Erica York from the Tax Foundation about how tariffs work and who ends up paying for them.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Kate Lamble and Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Steve Greenwood Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-09-04 09:30:00

Exclusions, black holes and dividing by zero (p0jn99vs.mp3)

Do half of children in Wales have special educational needs? Are permanent exclusions at the highest ever level in England? Labour are talking about a £22bn black hole. Is that a new black hole in the finances? Are there more Ghanaian nurses in the UK than in Ghana? Can you divide one by zero?

Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Kate Lamble and Nathan Gower Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Andy Fell Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-08-31 06:00:00

Where have Cuba’s people gone? (p0jml8fz.mp3)

The Cuban government has announced that their population has fallen by 10% in two years – just days after a demographer on the Caribbean island suggested an even bigger fall.

But which is the right number, and why are so many people leaving?

We speak to Dr Emily Morris from University College London and Dr Jorge Duany from the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University.

Presenter: Kate Lamble Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sue Maillot Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-08-24 06:00:00

Do we eat a credit card's worth of microplastic each week? (p0jl17w1.mp3)

The claim we all swallow 5.5 grams of microplastic each week – the same as the weight of a credit card – has been repeated by charities, newspapers and the World Economic Forum.

But when you understand how this number was calculated, and the range of possible answers for the amount of plastic you eat, you might not want to repeat it yourself.

Professor Jamie Woodward from the University of Manchester explains what’s what.

Presenter: Kate Lamble Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Researcher: Ajai Singh Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-08-17 06:00:00

Are companies making more money from their customers? (p0jjnrh4.mp3)

Recent reports claimed the average global mark-up, the difference between the price of production and the price that product is sold for, rose from 7% in 1980 to 59% by 2020.

So is this true? Are some companies choosing to charge us more than ever for their products?

We investigate the accuracy of these claims, and which companies are responsible with the help of Jan Eeckhout a Professor of Economics at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona

Presenter: Kate Lamble Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-08-10 06:00:00

Is planet Earth getting greener? (p0jgzqdx.mp3)

Canadian psychologist and culture war commentator Jordan Peterson says planet Earth has got 20% greener in the last 20 years.

But satellite data tells a different story.

We investigate the correct number, with the help of Dr Chi Chen, from Rutgers University in the US.

Presenter: Kate Lamble Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Fenton-Smith