Recent Entries

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-11-30 06:00:00

Can Elon Musk save the US Government $2 trillion? (p0k7vs3y.mp3)

President Elect Donald Trump has created a new government advisory group – the Department of Government Efficiency or ‘DOGE’ - to help cut the US budget.

The world richest man, Elon Musk, will co-head the department and has pledged to cut ‘at least $2 trillion’ to ‘balance the budget’. But is this possible? We talk to Professor Linda Bilmes about what DOGE could or couldn’t do and how she balanced the budget in the 1990’s.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Mix: Andrew Mills Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-11-23 06:00:00

Do fossil fuels get $7 trillion in subsidies? (p0k69jc5.mp3)

Governments around the world have promised to fight climate change. But are they also pumping an absolutely massive amount of money into subsidies for fossil fuels? In 2022, an IMF working paper estimated that global subsidies for fossil fuels totalled $7 trillion. But when you dig into that research, you find that this number might not mean what you think it does. We explain how they reached that conclusion, with the help of Angela Picciariello from the International Institute for Sustainable Development, and Nate Vernon, one of the co-authors of the IMF paper.

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-11-16 06:00:00

Did 20 million votes really go missing in the US election? (p0k4vghj.mp3)

Just hours after Donald Trump claimed victory in the US presidential election, rumours started swirling that something was afoot. A graph went viral on social media that appeared to show there were 20 million more votes cast in 2020 than in the 2024 election. Where had these supposedly “missing” votes gone? Conspiracy theorists on both sides of the political spectrum began shouting claims of fraud. The answer, it turns out, is rather more straightforward. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Mix: Hal Haines Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-11-09 06:00:00

Do we have enough clothes for the next six generations? (p0k37clx.mp3)

A huge quantity of clothing is produced every year around the world. But is so much made that there are already enough tops, trousers, skirts and all the rest to clothe humanity for decades into the future?

That’s a claim that has been percolating around the internet recently, that there are already enough clothes for the next six generations.

Tim Harford and Beth Ashmead Latham explore the source of this claim and, with help from Sabina Lawreniuk from Nottingham University, find that the evidence behind it is far from persuasive.

Presenter: Tim Harford and Bethan Ashmead Latham Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-11-02 06:00:00

What can economics learn from sport? (p0k1p1tp.mp3)

The great theories of economics seem to have great explanatory power, but the actual world is often far too complicated and messy to fully test them out.

Professor Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, an economist at the London School of Economics has an answer – sport. In the contained setting of competitive sport, he says, the rules are clear and you know who is doing what. This means, with some analysis, you can see vibrant illustrations of well-known economic theories playing out before your eyes.

Ignacio talks to Tim Harford about some of his favourite economic theories, demonstrated in action in sporting competition.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: John Scott Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-30 12:20:00

Are older drivers more dangerous? (p0k14kz3.mp3)

Could the cut in winter fuel payments cost thousands of lives? Is it really true that criminals sentenced to three years will be out of prison in two months? Are older drivers more dangerous than young ones? Do Southeastern Railway shift 50 million leaves from their lines?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Bethan Ashmead Latham and Nathan Gower Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-30 09:30:00

Are older drivers more dangerous? (p0k0z1qx.mp3)

Could the cut in winter fuel payments cost thousands of lives? Is it really true that criminals sentenced to three years will be out of prison in two months? Are older drivers more dangerous than young ones? Do Southeastern Railway shift 50 million leaves from their lines?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Bethan Ashmead Latham and Nathan Gower Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-26 06:00:00

Is Trump right about violent crime in Venezuela and the US? (p0k06l8c.mp3)

On the campaign trail for the US presidency, former president Donald Trump has been saying that the US is becoming a more dangerous than Venezuela.

He also claims that the crime data for the US that the FBI collects is missing the most violent cities.

Is he right? Tim Harford investigates, with the help of Bastian Herre from Our World in Data and Jay Albanese from Virginia Commonwealth University.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-23 11:50:00

Do US crime statistics miss out the most violent cities? (p0jzldsd.mp3)

Was an MP wrong about the number of people who pay capital gains tax?

Why is 2% the magic number for the rate of inflation?

Donald Trump says US crime figures are fake. Are they?

How do you work out how many buffaloberries a bear eats in a day?

And we fact-check a claim about the prevalence of suicide among GPs. For information and support follow this link: https://www.bbc.co.uk/actionline

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Nathan Gower and Bethan Ashmead Latham Series Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-19 06:00:00

Nobel prize: Why are some countries so much richer than others? (p0jypwdr.mp3)

The question of why some countries are rich and some poor has been described as the most important question in economics.

Perhaps that is why the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson for their work on the importance of institutions in the economic fortunes of nation states.

Tim Harford explains the economic theory that underpins their award.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Tim Harford Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-16 09:30:00

When are numbers like a horse at a gymkhana? (p0jy0mzs.mp3)

Can we teach BBC political editor Chris Mason some new maths skills? Do 60 of the UK’s richest people pay 100% tax? Have water bills fallen in real terms since 2010? When it comes to HPV and cervical cancer, is zero a small number?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower and Bethan Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-12 06:00:00

Uncertainty, probability and double yoked eggs (p0jx6k2y.mp3)

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter is one of the great communicators of probability and uncertainty.

His new book, The Art of Uncertainty, explains how to approach uncertainty, luck, probability and ignorance.

Tim Harford talks to Sir David about double yoked eggs, the Bay of Pigs, and his top tips for politicians who want to communicate evidence and uncertainty. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: John Scott Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-09 09:30:00

Should the government target persnuffle? (p0jwdkdq.mp3)

Are childhood obesity rates going down? Do 35 million birds die every year in the UK after hitting windows? How much money could the Chancellor find by changing the debt rule? And Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter contemplates the probability of his own conception.

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and in life.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte MacDonald Producers: Bethan Ashmead Latham, Natasha Fernandes and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-05 06:00:00

Are 672 billion pounds of corn eaten in the US every year? (p0jvlnhm.mp3)

National Geographic magazine recently wrote that “people in the United States eat more than 672 billion pounds of corn per year, which breaks down to more than 2,000 pounds per person annually”.

Is this really true?

Tim Harford investigates all the things that we don’t eat, that are counted in this number.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-10-02 09:30:00

How do you breed seventeen octillion rats? (p0jtyhjt.mp3)

Are GPs really working less hours per week? Does Wetherspoons really pay one in every £1000 of tax in the UK? Are more people in the UK economically inactive? How long does it take two rats to produce 17 octillion rats?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham Producer: Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-09-28 06:00:00

The puzzles you’re meant to get wrong (p0jt6q58.mp3)

Why do some puzzles make us immediately leap to the wrong conclusion?

That’s the subject of Alex Bellos’ new book Think Twice, which has page after page of questions designed to deceive.

Alex sets Tim Harford some of his favourite puzzles.

Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison and Janet Staples Sound mix: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-09-25 09:30:00

Could the winter fuel cut cost more than it saves? (p0jskz96.mp3)

The government is encouraging pensioners to claim pension credit in order to remain eligible for winter fuel payments. Will people sign up - and might that end up costing the exchequer more than it saves?

The Office for National Statistics has downgraded the status of a new statistic aiming to measure how many people are transgender. What went wrong?

Cancer appears to be on the rise in people under 50. But are more people dying?

And try your hand at a puzzle you’re likely to get wrong.

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-09-21 06:00:00

Do 85% of the world’s population practice a religion? (p0jrsd1q.mp3)

We don’t usually do god on More or Less, but one listener got in touch to ask us to investigate a stat used by an Anglican priest on a BBC radio programme.

Speaking on the “Thought for the Day” slot, Reverend Lucy Winkett said that around 85% of the world's population practice a religion.

Is this true? We speak to Conrad Hackett, from the Pew Research Center, and the person whose research is the source for the claim.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-09-18 09:30:00

How do you count millionaires? (p0jr5453.mp3)

Can we be sure that thousands of millionaires are leaving the UK? How much do asylum seekers cost the state? Who will win a geeky bet on private school pupil numbers? What does a string quartet teach us about the woes of the National Health Service?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Caroline Bayley, Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-09-14 06:00:00

Nate Silver: Do risk-takers run the world? (p0jqbgds.mp3)

Big stakes poker player and elections analyst Nate Silver is no stranger to a calculated risk.

In his new book, On The Edge, he makes the case that people willing to take massive calculated risks are winning in the modern economy.

Tim Harford talks to Nate about the mindset that’s driving hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and silicon valley investors.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-09-11 09:30:00

How long does it take to turn around an oil tanker? (p0jpprw6.mp3)

Do illegal migrants receive more in benefits than pensioners? Was Energy Secretary Ed Miliband right to celebrate a “record breaking” renewable energy auction? Is one divided by zero infinity? Why don’t we spend more on evidence that government spending works? And how long does it actually take to turn around an oil tanker?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Natasha Fernandes, Bethan Ashmead-Latham and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-09-07 06:00:00

Who pays when trade wars heat up? (p0jnyr5k.mp3)

Donald Trump wants new tariffs on goods coming into the US, describing them as a tax on other countries. The Democrats are no stranger to trade tariffs themselves, with Joe Biden having added them to numerous goods coming into the US from China.

We talk to Erica York from the Tax Foundation about how tariffs work and who ends up paying for them.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Kate Lamble and Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Steve Greenwood Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-09-04 09:30:00

Exclusions, black holes and dividing by zero (p0jn99vs.mp3)

Do half of children in Wales have special educational needs? Are permanent exclusions at the highest ever level in England? Labour are talking about a £22bn black hole. Is that a new black hole in the finances? Are there more Ghanaian nurses in the UK than in Ghana? Can you divide one by zero?

Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Kate Lamble and Nathan Gower Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Andy Fell Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-08-31 06:00:00

Where have Cuba’s people gone? (p0jml8fz.mp3)

The Cuban government has announced that their population has fallen by 10% in two years – just days after a demographer on the Caribbean island suggested an even bigger fall.

But which is the right number, and why are so many people leaving?

We speak to Dr Emily Morris from University College London and Dr Jorge Duany from the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University.

Presenter: Kate Lamble Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sue Maillot Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-08-24 06:00:00

Do we eat a credit card's worth of microplastic each week? (p0jl17w1.mp3)

The claim we all swallow 5.5 grams of microplastic each week – the same as the weight of a credit card – has been repeated by charities, newspapers and the World Economic Forum.

But when you understand how this number was calculated, and the range of possible answers for the amount of plastic you eat, you might not want to repeat it yourself.

Professor Jamie Woodward from the University of Manchester explains what’s what.

Presenter: Kate Lamble Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Researcher: Ajai Singh Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-08-17 06:00:00

Are companies making more money from their customers? (p0jjnrh4.mp3)

Recent reports claimed the average global mark-up, the difference between the price of production and the price that product is sold for, rose from 7% in 1980 to 59% by 2020.

So is this true? Are some companies choosing to charge us more than ever for their products?

We investigate the accuracy of these claims, and which companies are responsible with the help of Jan Eeckhout a Professor of Economics at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona

Presenter: Kate Lamble Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

From More or Less: Behind the Stats at 2024-08-10 06:00:00

Is planet Earth getting greener? (p0jgzqdx.mp3)

Canadian psychologist and culture war commentator Jordan Peterson says planet Earth has got 20% greener in the last 20 years.

But satellite data tells a different story.

We investigate the correct number, with the help of Dr Chi Chen, from Rutgers University in the US.

Presenter: Kate Lamble Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Fenton-Smith