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Podcasts (100)
Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova (100)
Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions. Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro. Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk. Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.
From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-12-13 05:01:00
What’s In Store With Self-Driving Cars (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate has ridden in a Waymo, and it was like stepping into the future. Maria’s never been in one, but she’s been stuck behind a lot of autonomous vehicles… They swap human-driven car horror stories and discuss some of the risks and benefits of a future full of self-driving cars.
From the New York Times: The Data on Self-Driving Cars Is Clear. We Have to Change Course.
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-12-10 05:01:00
What Movies Get Right and Wrong About Poker (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Maria finally gets to reveal a project she’s been working on that’s been kept under wraps, and then it’s movie night on Risky Business! Nate and Maria talk about their favorite poker movies and explain why portrayals of poker for a movie audience often don’t get the game quite right. Plus, they share what poker movie they’d like to make and who’d play them in it.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-12-08 05:01:00
Deep Cover Presents: Snowball [ft. Maria Konnikova] (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
We’re sharing a preview of another podcast, Deep Cover Presents: Snowball, that Maria participated in. Snowball follows journalist Ollie Wards as he unravels the wild story of how his family lost everything after their brush with a charming Californian con woman. He embarks on a question to find out how she did it, why she did it, and where she is now. Here’s a preview of Snowball. If you can’t wait to find out what happens, binge episodes of Deep Cover Presents: Snowball early and ad-free with a Pushkin+ subscription. Find Pushkin+ on the Deep Cover show page in Apple Podcasts or at pushkin.fm/plus.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-12-06 05:01:00
Introducing: Odd Lots with Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Here’s a preview of another podcast we enjoy, Odd Lots with Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal.
Odd Lots has some of the most interesting conversations in finance, markets and economics, and every episode has the “perfect guest” – from truckers and bakers to portfolio managers and CEOs. As longtime financial journalists with a wide breadth of experience, Joe and Tracy dive into everything from poultry farming to AI valuations, as well as big questions about manufacturing, geopolitics, central banking and much more. New episodes drop on Mondays, Thursdays and Fridays wherever you get your podcasts.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-12-03 05:01:00
Frisky Business: Olivia Nuzzi, Ryan Lizza, and Journalistic Ethics (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria game out the comparative benefits (and risks) of flying vs. driving vs. taking the train when traveling for the holidays. They also discuss Olivia Nuzzi’s new memoir, her ex-fiancé Ryan Lizza’s substack revelations about her, and the current state of journalistic ethics.
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-12-02 05:01:00
How to Experience the Joy of Giving Right Now: A Giving Tuesday Special from The Happiness Lab (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
According to the science, it really is better to give than receive. Donating a dollar; sharing a kind word or lending someone a hand changes lives, but can also hugely boost your happiness. So we're teaming up with other podcasts from Hidden Brain to Revisionist History to ask you to give to a charity helping some of the poorest people around. We're calling it #PodsFightPoverty.
Go to givedirectly.org/happinesslab right now and give whatever you can.
Even a small donation will make you feel good and have a much larger impact on the world than you thought possible. To help inspire you, this special episode examines the science of giving and shares stories of heartwarming and impactful acts of kindness.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-11-29 05:01:00
The Prisoners’ Dilemma of Performance-Enhancing Drugs (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
This week we answer a question from listener Brandon, who’s noticed a rise in performance-enhancing drugs outside of sports. Nate and Maria discuss their own philosophies on PEDs, their impact on equilibriums, and what people risk when they decide to juice.
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-11-26 05:01:00
NO LIMIT, Some AI… Poker’s Documentary-Gate (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
The WSOP’s NO LIMIT docuseries has been scrubbed from the internet following revelations that it includes AI-generated content, despite creator Dustin Ianotti’s explanation that the material “tracked closely” with other quotes and was only used for “faster scene transitions and narrative pacing."
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-11-22 05:01:00
Risky Business Live! How To Read People In Poker And Beyond (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Most people are bad at spotting bluffs and tells – but there are ways to get better. Nate and Maria discuss tips and tricks from the poker table s with a live audience at Ludlow House in New York City.
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-11-19 05:01:00
Will The Epstein Files Sink Trump? (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
After months of resistance, President Trump made a striking reversal on the Epstein files this week, signaling he would sign legislation to release them. Nate and Maria discuss whether this is the start of a “lame duck” spiral for Trump, and whether (or to what extent) it will impact his tenure if the files do finally come to light.
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-11-15 05:01:00
Society is betting on AI – and the outcomes aren’t looking good (with Nate Soares) (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Humanity’s attempts to achieve artificial superintelligence will be our downfall, according to If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. That’s the new book out by AI experts Nates Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky. And while their provocation may feel extreme in this moment when AI slop abounds and the media is hyping a bubble on the verge of bursting, Soares is so convinced of his argument that he’s calling for a complete stop to AI development.
Today on the show, Nate and Maria ask Soares how he came to this conclusion and what everyone else is missing.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-11-12 17:55:00
The Democrats Are Folding on the Shutdown (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Despite a blue wave in recent state and local elections, Senate Democrats caved to Republican demands on the shutdown, giving up the health care subsidies they started the shutdown over nearly 50 days ago.
Nate and Maria argue that the Democrats are squandering their momentum, and discuss the consequences for key figures like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. They also reflect on the election of Zohran Mamdani, the Mayor-Elect of New York City, and talk about the difference between campaigns and reality.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-11-08 05:01:00
Even Our Economy Is Gamified Now (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
From social media and dynamic pricing to meme stocks and AI hype, gamification has taken over our lives—and a recent op-ed argues that it’s even spread into our economy, driven by Trump. Nate and Maria discuss the psychology behind the “casino economy” and why speculation and risk are so addicting. They talk about what it means when governments, businesses, and individuals lean into risk even as buffers against bad bets shrink—and why it’s easy not to object until it’s already too late.
Further Reading:
From the New York Times: It Is Trump’s Casino Economy Now. You’ll Probably Lose
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-11-05 05:01:00
What Happens in Vegas...Might Tell Us Something About the US Economy (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
With traffic down, gambling down, and hotel prices bottoming out, everyone’s asking: Is Las Vegas dead? Nate and Maria wade into the frenzy with some real data and hard-won experience. They talk about why casinos are struggling, what this indicates for the broader economy, and why high-end steak houses are, in fact, a recession indicator.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-11-01 04:01:00
What to Make of the NBA Sports Betting Scandal (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Last week, two federal indictments and several high-profile arrests rocked the NBA. One indictment accused defendants of sharing insider information to cheat at sports betting, and the other accused over 30 co-conspirators, including members of various mafia families, of rigging poker games.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-10-29 04:01:00
Lessons From A Marathoner (with Nicholas Thompson) (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria sit down with the elite amateur runner Nicholas Thompson (who also happens to be the CEO of The Atlantic) to talk about his new book The Running Ground. They discuss what running can teach about productivity and fulfillment, his favorite brand of gels, and…his late-father’s brothel in Bali.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-10-25 05:01:00
The Canal, the Crash and the Ketamine - Pushkin's Reign of Error (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
We have a special episode for you today! In which Nate and Maria join their fellow Pushkin hosts to dive deep into the art of failure.
Tim Harford of Cautionary Tales shares stories of minor mistakes with massive consequences. Jonathan Goldstein of Heavyweight speaks with his friend, the writer Sheila Heti about the cost of mistakes and whether we're really in control of how many we make. And, our very own Nate and Maria give a gambler's take on the strange science of regret.
Cautionary Tales and Heavyweight are available wherever you get your podcasts.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-10-22 05:01:00
What Democrats Should Take from No Kings Protests (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Over the weekend, some 5 million people across the United States marched in ‘No Kings’ protests. Nate and Maria sit down to talk about why this matters, the psychology of protests, and how Democratic strategists can build on the momentum going forward.
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-10-18 05:01:00
What the Nobels Tell Us About the World Right Now (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
The 2025 Nobel Prizes have now been announced, and Maria convinces Nate to learn about the winners. They discuss the selection process, the economic award for research on “creative destruction,” and what prizes they should be considered for.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-10-15 05:01:00
Good Call/Bad Call: Bari Weiss as CBS’s New Editor-in-Chief (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Last week, Paramount bought digital news site The Free Press for $150 million, and made one of its founders, Bari Weiss, the new editor-in-chief of CBS. Everyone has opinions on Weiss…and so do Nate and Maria. They debate whether Weiss has the expertise to be editor-in-chief of a TV network, discuss what her appointment says about Paramount CEO David Ellison’s vision for the company, and judge whether this was a good or a bad call.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-10-11 05:01:00
What Jane Goodall Teaches Us About Outsider Thought (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Pioneering primatologist and anthropologist Jane Goodall died last week at 91. Nate and Maria talk about Jane’s career path and how her research influenced the fields of both animal and human cognition. They also discuss the significance of the outsider status she held when she began her research, and what everyone can learn from outsiders.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-10-08 05:15:00
With Sora 2, We’re Climbing Higher on the Dystopia Scale (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria discuss how and when the government shutdown is most likely to end. Then, they turn to OpenAI’s newest release: Sora 2, an AI video generation app that allows users to create a video from a text prompt. As Maria struggles to think of some possible positive uses for this app, Nate considers what its release tells us about Open AI's goals for the future.
From The Information: Why OpenAI Offered to Pay $500 Million For A Startup With Videogame Data
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-10-04 17:18:53
Sleep, Track, Don’t Multitask: How To Succeed In Online Poker (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria discuss their favorite topic: poker! In this episode, they dive into the nuanced strategy of online poker: how to manage your schedule, how to prioritize information, and whether quantity trumps quality as you strive to improve.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-10-01 05:15:00
Will Eric Adams’s Exit Change the NYC Mayoral Election? (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Eric Adams is out of the NYC mayoral race! Nate and Maria discuss his tenure as mayor, the timing of his announcement, and what this means for the remaining candidates. And — because it can be hard to remember a time before his multiple scandals and single-digit polling — they talk about the enthusiasm that once surrounded Adams, and what that arc says about the Democratic leadership vacuum. (And yes, they talk about Nate’s tweet).
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-09-27 05:15:00
Did the LA Clippers Take a Page from the Mob? (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
The NBA is investigating the LA Clippers and team owner Steve Ballmer over allegations that star player Kawhi Leonard accepted a $28 million endorsement as a way to get around the league’s salary cap. The endorsement deal was with the now-defunct sustainable banking company Aspiration—a company in which Ballmer has invested. Nate and Maria talk about whether Ballmer tried to take a page out of the mob playbook, and how the league could deter this kind of behavior in the future.
Plus: Nate and Maria discuss a report from the Citizens Budget Commission that claims that New York’s share of millionaires is falling—and with it, the potential for revenue generation from taxes.
Further Reading:
From Pablo Torre Finds Out: Kawhi Leonard Signed a Secret $28M Deal. Steve Ballmer Funded a Fraud. We Followed the Money.
Citizens Budget Commission Report: The Hidden Cost of New York’s Shrinking Millionaire Share
From the New York Times: New York Needs More Millionaires, Fiscal Watchdog Says”
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The Leap from Maria Konnikova
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-09-24 05:15:00
Presidents Have Tried To Censor the Media Before…and It Backfired (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Disney briefly pulled Jimmy Kimmel off the air last week for comments he made about Charlie Kirk’s alleged killer, after FCC Chair Brendan Carr threatened action against Disney and ABC. But this is not the first time the government has tried to censor the media: Maria walks us through a brief history of presidents trying to limit what the press says. Then, Nate and Maria discuss whether cancel culture led us to this particular moment.
Read Nate’s newsletter post, The political mood feels like 9/11 again
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-09-20 05:15:00
When You Come at the King: Holding Presidents to Account (with Elie Honig) (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
It’s our first Saturday drop! Nate and Maria host former assistant US Attorney Elie Honig to discuss his new book, a brisk history of special counsels — plagued by politics, checked by presidents, declawed under Trump’s second term — and why rescuing the office matters.
Find Elie’s book here: When You Come At The King
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-09-17 05:15:00
Can The Center Hold After Charlie Kirk? Plus: Shutdown Strategy (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria share their reactions to last week’s assassination of conservative organizer and activist Charlie Kirk, who died after sustaining a gunshot wound at a speaking event on a Utah campus.
Then, they debate the Democrats’ strategy as a government shutdown looms — and Nate says what he would do if he were Chuck Schumer.
NOTE: Risky Business will now be in your feeds twice a week, on Wednesdays and Saturdays. We will be pausing bonus content for the time being, but premium subscribers still get ad-free access to the entire Pushkin network.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-09-10 05:30:00
Is There Really A Crisis of Masculinity? (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Tesla has offered CEO Elon Musk a package worth $1 trillion to stay at the helm of the company — if he can hit a series of very ambitious goals. All of this comes in the midst of a serious dip in performance at the company, with stock falling 16% this year (partly as a result of Musk’s controversial moves on the world stage). So this week, Nate and Maria play armchair quarterback in a game of Good Call / Bad Call.
Then, they cut through the chatter over a modern masculinity crisis and get into the data. Is there really a crisis among men? Is it better to be a woman in 2025?
Further Reading:
Boy Crisis of 2025, Meet the ‘Boy Problem’ of the 1900s from NYT
The ‘Boy Crisis’ Is Overblown from NYT
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-09-04 05:30:00
Determinative Decisions Before Birth: Genes and Names (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate is on vacation this week, so Maria is joined by journalist David Epstein, author of The Sports Gene and Range. They talk about a new company that offers comprehensive genetic sequencing on embryos during the IVF process—at a high price. What are the ethics of this kind of technology? And what are the risks (and rewards) of trying to optimize your child’s genes? Plus, they discuss a topic they’ve been texting about for years: Does your name determine who you become?
Further Reading:
You can find more about David and his writing on his website, https://davidepstein.com/.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-08-28 05:30:00
The Game Theory of Reality TV (with Survivor’s Boston Rob) (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
This week, Maria interviews reality TV legend Boston Rob. Rob has been on Survivor six times, and has also appeared on The Amazing Race, The Traitors, and Deal or No Deal Island. He’s a master strategist with a psychology background. He and Maria discuss how to build trust strategically in a competitive environment, how to read your opponents’ motivations, and why it’s so important to play to win.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-08-21 05:30:00
Where the Puck Is Going: Why Maximum Gerrymandering May Be Inevitable (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
As Texas embarks on a rare round of mid-decade redistricting and California threatens to answer with its own, Nate and Maria analyze the history, politics, and game theory of gerrymandering.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-08-14 05:30:00
What’s the Optimal Personality for AI? (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
This week Nate and Maria discuss the release of GPT-5, the latest model from OpenAI. This model promises to be faster, smarter, and more useful while also reducing hallucinations and sycophancy. It also lets users choose among different AI “personalities.” What do Nate and Maria think so far?
Then, they turn to the newly inked Nvidia trade deal, which notably includes a 15% cut of sales to China for the US government
Further Reading:
Ethical Issues In Advanced Artificial Intelligence by Nick Bostrom, 2003
SuperIntelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies by Nick Bostrom, 2014
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-07-31 05:30:00
America’s New AI Strategy (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
With all the frenzy last week around Jeffrey Epstein and ColdplayGate, you might have missed an important story: Trump’s new AI Action Plan. Released alongside three new executive orders on AI, the plan emphasizes deregulation, open sourcing, and “anti-woke” models in a race for industry dominance. Today, Nate and Maria get into the details and declare it… not bad?
Further Reading:
Zvi Mowshowitz America’s AI Action Plan Is Pretty Good
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-07-24 05:15:00
You Play Better When You’re Having Fun (with Leo Margets and Erik Seidel) (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
To wrap up our coverage of the World Series of Poker, we bring you a poker interview extravaganza. This year, Leo Margets became the second woman ever to make it to the Main Event final table—and the first since 1995. Nate and Maria chat with Leo about her approach to poker, why having fun helps her play better, and how she felt about her historic 2025 WSOP. Then, they interview poker legend Erik Seidel, who taught Maria to play the game. He talks about the camaraderie of the poker world, and shares his personal “no suffering” rule.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-07-17 05:15:00
The Butterfly Effect in Poker. Plus: How To Think About Conspiracies. (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria share some updates from the final days of the World Series of Poker, and reflect on the importance of making peace with randomness. Then: the Trump administration’s sudden about face on the Epstein Files is ruffling feathers in his usually unruffle-able base. Will he be able to convince the true believers that there is, in fact, nothing to see here? And, how should we think about conspiracy theories in a world where conspiracies are sometimes real?
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-07-10 05:15:00
Why did COVID Decision-Making Go So Wrong? (with David Zweig) (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Early in the COVID pandemic, the US closed schools and sent kids home. And then, the schools stayed closed—even as they began to reopen in other parts of the world. Experts and officials claimed that these measures sprang from “an abundance of caution.” But what was the evidence on the necessity of keeping kids home? And, looking back, did the benefits of prolonged school closures outweigh the costs?
This week, Nate interviews author and journalist David Zweig about his book examining COVID policies and school closure decisions during the pandemic. They get into why we tend to find cost-benefit analysis so difficult, how political polarization shaped decision-making during the pandemic, and how the COVID models failed.
Further Reading:
David Zweig’s book is An Abundance of Caution: American Schools, the Virus, and a Story of Bad Decisions
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-07-03 05:15:00
Live from Aspen! Zohran Mamdani’s Win, and How To Communicate Probabilities (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria take a quick break from the World Series of Poker to tape a live episode at the Aspen Ideas Festival. They give some updates on a scandal at the World Series, then discuss Zohran Mamdani’s recent win in New York City’s Democratic primary, and what it might mean for elections moving forward. They also discuss the language we use to convey probability, and why talking about it can be so difficult. Plus, they answer some audience questions.
Further Reading:
From Adam Kucharski’s newsletter, Understanding the unseen: Possibly a serious possibility
From Silver Bulletin: Zohran delivered the Democratic establishment the thrashing it deserved
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-06-26 05:30:00
Iran: Don’t Rush To Judge A Dangerous Moment (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s strikes on Iran. How can we understand this developing situation, without falling prey to our own biases? And when nuclear weapons are involved, how do risk calculations change?
Plus, Nate and Maria recap another week at the World Series of Poker, which wouldn’t be complete without some controversy.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-06-24 05:30:00
Cautionary Questions with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Can game theory be used to win a world cup? Can you pay the way out of political corruption? And are there winning strategies in life we don't use because we're too embarrassed?
We're sharing this special episode of Cautionary Tales in which Nate and Maria make an appearance to answer listener questions with CT host Tim Harford.
For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-06-19 05:15:00
Does Ranked Choice Voting Work? Plus, New AI Predictions (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria report back on the ups and downs of the WSOP. Then, they discuss ranked choice voting and the upcoming New York City mayoral primary. This voting system is supposed to help a consensus candidate win…but, does it? Finally, they talk about Nate’s recent trip to the Manifest conference in Berkeley, and why they’ve become more skeptical of the idea that artificial superintelligence might soon transform the world.
Further Reading:
Silver Bulletin guest post by Joel Wertheimer: Can anyone beat Cuomo? And is it Zohran?
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-06-12 05:15:00
This Year’s World Series Of Poker Is Different (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria are back in Las Vegas for the World Series of Poker 2025. They discuss a key rule change that will have a major effect on their strategy. Then, they’re joined by a Risky Business listener who gets a crash course in tournament play. Finally, they look back on their own early days at the WSOP.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-06-05 05:30:00
An Elon Musk Report Card (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Elon Musk has left the Trump administration. Nate and Maria talk about his brief but influential tenure, and discuss why overconfidence is a particular problem for people like Musk. Plus, they answer a listener question about how the US government can make better decisions.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-05-29 05:30:00
Why ChatGPT Sucks at Poker (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
ChatGPT is amazing at many things…but it can’t seem to figure out poker. Nate and Maria explain why, and talk about the implications for artificial general intelligence. Plus, they discuss Trump vs. Harvard, round two.
Further Reading:
Silver Bulletin: ChatGPT Is Shockingly Bad at Poker
Harvard Derangement Syndrome, by Steven Pinker
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-05-21 05:15:00
Motivated Reasoning in the Biden Campaign, Silicon Valley, and Beyond (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
We tend to use logic to reach conclusions that agree with our biases. Psychologists call this motivated reasoning. Today, Nate and Maria talk about motivated reasoning in the Biden campaign and Silicon Valley. Also: Conspiracy theories and the NBA draft.
Further Reading:
Fight: Inside the Wildest Battle for the White House
Original Sin: President Biden’s Decline, Its Cover Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again
Elizabeth Holmes’ Partner Has a New Blood-Testing Startup
The Mavs’ Cooper Flagg lottery miracle fuels conspiracy theories – and hope
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-05-15 05:15:00
What Should Colleges Do about ChatGPT? (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria revisit their conclave predictions, and discuss Maria’s recent win in Monte Carlo. Then the talk about college students’ rampant use of ChatGPT to cheat on assignments, and how colleges and professors might be able to catch up.
Further Reading:
From New York Magazine: Everyone Is Cheating Their Way Through College
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-05-08 05:15:00
Life After Poker (with Vanessa Selbst) (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria interview former professional poker player Vanessa Selbst—the only woman ever to reach the number one ranking on the Global Poker Index. They discuss her experiences playing poker and her move into the world of finance (she now works for Jane Street Capital). They also discuss why, at her first job in finance, she kept a giant bag of pennies underneath her desk.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-05-01 05:15:00
The Conclave, Sinners, and Negotiation Tips (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
The next pope will be chosen through a ritualized process involving secret ballots, smoke signals, and a lock-in at the Sistine Chapel. Nate and Maria talk about how the papal conclave works, and what it has to teach us about group decision-making and the dynamics of secrecy. They also discuss the studio deal for the new movie Sinners, and share their own top negotiating tips. Plus, they play a game of Would You Rather.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-04-24 05:15:00
The Right (And Wrong) Ways to Fight Trump (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
This week, Nate and Maria talk about the Trump administration’s deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia without due process. The stakes are high–but immigration is a stronger issue for Trump in the court of public opinion than tariffs were. Picking a fight with Harvard may also be good politics for the administration. So: how should Democrats, and other anti-Trump forces, respond?
Further Reading:
What if There’s No Way to Stop Trump’s Approach to Power? from Ross Douthat at the New York Times
Nate’s Silver Bulletin post about the Kilmar Abrego Garcia case
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-04-17 05:30:00
Will AI Radically Change the World by 2027? (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
This week, Nate and Maria discuss AI 2027, a new report from the AI Futures Project that lays out some pretty doom-y scenarios for our near-term AI future. They talk about how likely humans are to be misled by rogue AI, and whether current conflicts between the US and China will affect the way this all unfolds. Plus, Nate talks about the feedback he gave the AI 2027 writers after reading an early draft of their forecast, and reveals what he sees as the report’s central flaw.
The AI Futures Project’s AI 2027 scenario: https://ai-2027.com/
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-04-10 05:15:00
Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s latest round of tariffs. What is the strategy here, if any? What should other decision-makers – like Elon Musk or the United States’ Congress – do to intervene? And how should the average American react?
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-04-03 05:15:00
The Ivy League Bows to Trump, Plus Protecting Your Genetic Data and Your Time (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
This week – after a quick check in on their March Madness brackets – Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s showdown with the Ivy League. Should schools like Harvard and Columbia do more to stand up to the President’s demands?
Then they turn to 23andMe, which has declared bankruptcy. They discuss privacy and whether it’s okay to swap your biometric data for more convenience at the airport.
Last but not least, they tackle the question of how to properly value your time.
Further Reading:
Kashmir Hill’s Your Face Belongs To Us
Sendhil Mullianathan’s research on time poverty
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-03-27 04:15:00
Group Chat Protocols, Bracket Updates, and thoughts on the WNBA (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
This week, Nate and Maria discuss The Atlantic’s bombshell report about how its top editor was added to a national security group chat, and get into why the most major security risk is never technology–it’s always people. Then, they give an update on their March Madness bracket contest, and try to figure out why on earth players have to wait until they’re 22 to join the WNBA.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-03-19 04:15:00
March Madness Bracket Extravaganza (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
This week, Nate and Maria talk college basketball. Nate explains how he made his recently-released March Madness model. Then, they compare their tournament brackets. Maria gets some help from Sacramento Kings GM Monte McNair, but also makes one bracket entirely based on vibes. Nate mostly sticks to his model, but makes a few surprising picks.
Check out Maria’s brackets here.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-03-13 04:15:00
China’s Best Moves, and How to React to a Dealer’s Mistake (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Last week, Nate and Maria talked about the game theory of American diplomacy right now. This week, they look at it from the perspective of America’s biggest rival: China. How should China respond as the US turns away from the global stage? What new opportunities do they have?
Plus, both hosts weigh in on the poker controversy surrounding a recent big win… that was actually a loss.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-03-06 05:15:00
How Trump is Getting the Game Theory Wrong (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s tariffs and analyze his strategy from a game theory perspective. They get into the difference between zero-sum and cooperative games, speculate on how Trump would act in the dictator game, and discuss the rationality of revenge. Then, they talk about the reboot of the infamous Fyre Festival, and why con artists so rarely reform.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-02-27 05:15:00
Thinking Smart About Low-Probability Events (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
This week, Nate and Maria discuss the asteroid that had a 3% chance of colliding with Earth. That risk is now closer to 0%—but, what does this example reveal about how to consider extremely costly events that are fairly unlikely to come to pass?
Then, they touch on the latest World Series of Poker drama and challenge each other to a game of Roshambo.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-02-20 05:15:00
Trust and Facing the Unknown (with Rachel Botsman) (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
This week, Maria speaks with trust expert Rachel Botsman about her new audiobook How To Trust and Be Trusted. What is trust? Why, even in the face of overwhelming evidence, do we sometimes trust the wrong people? And what can a luxury hotel teach us about how to repair a trust that’s been broken?
And – for Pushkin+ subscribers – Nate and Maria answer a listener question about learning to feel the difference between probabilities.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-02-13 05:15:00
Trump’s First Three Weeks: What Actually Matters? (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Amid a maelstrom of executive orders and other presidential actions, Nate and Maria discuss best practices for staying focused on the important things. They also give their takes on what those important things are. And, they follow up on their Super Bowl prop bet – were there tears during the National Anthem? (They disagree – weigh in below.)
Plus, Nate updates us on his housing search, and Pushkin+ subscribers get advice about how to pick a doctor.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-02-06 05:01:00
Air Travel, Alcohol, and How to Bet On a Coin Toss (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Our intuitive risk assessments can be way off–we’re too scared of hijackings, and not scared enough of crossing the street. This week, Nate and Maria discuss the real risks of plane travel, and of drinking alcohol. Then, they debate whether the sharp money is on heads or tails in the Super Bowl coin toss, and make a very serious bet about whether the national anthem will move any players or coaches to tears.
Plus, Nate and Maria answer a listener question about the value of betting on underdogs for Pushkin+ subscribers.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-01-30 05:01:00
Should You Learn Poker from ChatGPT? And Other AI Questions (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
In the wake of DeepSeek’s explosive entrance into the AI chatbot world, Nate and Maria talk AI strategy. At the national level and the personal level, what benefits does this technology actually have – and is it worth it?
Plus, we tackle a question from listener Hugh about how to win big at his friendly, amateur poker night. Good luck, Hugh!
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-01-23 05:01:00
Trump’s Strategy: Distraction and Executive Action (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
What do the decisions Trump has made so far tell us about his strategy for his second term? And what strategic options do the Democrats have? Nate and Maria talk birthright citizenship, tech CEOs, memecoins, and pardons.
And, Nate and Maria answer a listener question about the status of their driver’s licenses.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-01-16 05:01:00
Wildfires, Insurance, and Planning for Disaster (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria discuss the California wildfires. How do incentives in insurance markets drive decisions by homeowners – and by insurers? What’s the best way to make rational decisions about the disaster risks we all face?
And they discuss a question from listener JM who asks what happens when the River and the Village mix it up in Washington?
Further Reading:
Colm Toíbin on the loss of Gary Indiana’s personal library in the Palisades fire
An overview of California’s insurance issues from the WSJ
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-01-09 05:01:00
Nate and Maria’s 2025 Predictions (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria share their predictions for the year to come, covering everything from the price of Bitcoin, to the fate of President Trump’s cabinet picks, to whether Nate will wear skinny jeans.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2025-01-02 05:01:00
Learning From Failure, Avoiding Regret, and Managing Risk with Restaurateur Henry Rich (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Maria talks to her friend Henry Rich about how he’s managed to find success in one of the world’s riskiest industries: restaurants. Themes include learning from failure, accounting for ruin, and finding meaning at work.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-12-19 05:01:00
Luigi Mangione, the Rise of Bluesky, and High-Stakes Chokes (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria talk about what Luigi Mangione can show us about the danger of black and white thinking, and how platforms like Bluesky and X create bubbles that make matters worse. Then, with the reigning world chess champion dethroned after a surprising choke, they discuss how they deal with high-stakes situations.
Risky Business will be off next week. We’ll be back with a new episode on 1/2/25. Happy New Year!
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-12-12 05:01:00
The Riskies: The Best, Worst, and Most Interesting Decisions of 2024 (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
What were the best, worst, and most interesting decisions of 2024, and what can we learn from them? Nate and Maria award the year’s most notable decisions in our first annual Riskies awards show. Also: degen of the year, nit of the year, and the cognitive bias that best explains 2024.
Then, they give a quick poker update and answer a listener’s question about the expected value of learning multiple languages.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-12-05 05:01:00
Presidential Pardons and Other Family Gift-Giving Strategies (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Is Biden on tilt? Nate and Maria analyze the Hunter Biden pardon and try to find the line between false equivalence and equivalence. Then, inspired by the president’s present, they offer some thoughts on game-theory optimal gift giving for the holiday season.
By the way, Nate and Maria will be hosting a poker meet up at the Bellagio next week! 12pm PST on 12/11 at the Bellagio poker room in Las Vegas. RSVP to attend
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-11-28 05:01:00
Maria and Nate’s Guide to GTO Travel (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria share their game-theory-optimal travel strategies – the best time to get to the airport, the optimal airport meal, the value of rental car insurance, and more. Also: The biggest travel mistakes they ever made.
Then, Maria breaks down a scandal in academic psychology research – and she and Nate discuss the underlying incentives that have led researchers to make bad decisions.
Do you have a topic or theme you’d like Nate & Maria to discuss in a future episode? Reach out to us at riskybusiness@pushkin.fm with any suggestions.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-11-21 05:01:00
How Senators and NFL Players Make High Risk Decisions (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria talk through the game theory of how moderate Republican Senators are likely to react to Trump’s controversial cabinet nominees. Then, they discuss the new “Guardian Caps” the NFL has approved to lower the risk of concussion – and explain why most players are deciding not to wear them.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-11-14 05:01:00
Will Trump Bring the River to Washington? (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria discuss the influence of Riverians like Elon Musk on the Trump Administration, and what’s next for Democrats looking ahead to 2026. Then, Maria tells Nate about a few key hands from the penultimate table of the North American Poker Tour Main Event.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-11-06 23:24:49
How Trump Won (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria take a closer look at the results of the election. They discuss polling errors, prediction markets, demographic shifts, and campaign strategy. And Nate shares some parting advice for President Biden.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-11-04 22:29:10
What to Look for on Election Day (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
On the day before the election, Nate gives a final model update, explains the latest polls, and talks about what he’ll be looking for on election day. Then, Maria and Nate trade their predictions and fears for how election day will play out.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-10-31 04:01:00
The Worst Decisions of the Harris and Trump (and Biden) Campaigns (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
What were the worst and best decisions of this year’s presidential campaigns? With less than a week to go, Nate and Maria look back at the key strategic decisions of the race.
And of course, we spend some time looking at the model.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-10-30 04:01:00
Odd Lots: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art of Election Betting (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Earlier this election cycle, Nate and Maria appeared on Odd Lots to talk about prediction markets and election betting. It was a fun conversation -- and we're releasing it now for anyone hoping to get their final bets in.
Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of the US presidential race. But how accurate are these markets? How do people make money on them? What do they tell us beyond what traditional polling or modeling already indicates? On this episode, Odd Lots hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, the co-hosts of the new podcast Risky Business. Silver is, of course, a famed election modeler, and both are serious poker players with good instincts for gambling and odds. We discuss how these markets work and what the markets and models are saying right now about the current US campaign.
Read More at Bloomberg.com:
https://bloom.bg/46Q66tS
https://bloom.bg/3X54rNP
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-10-24 12:56:50
How to build a championship team, with Daryl Morey of the 76ers (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
This week, Nate and Maria talk to Daryl Morey of the Philadelphia 76ers about bringing game theory and probabilistic thinking to the NBA. And, of course, Nate and Maria discuss the election.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-10-17 05:01:00
How Maria Won Her First WSOP Bracelet (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Maria snagged her first World Series of Poker Bracelet! She and Nate break down her strategy on the crucial hands that got her the win. Then, we turn our attention to the Nobel Peace Prize and the p(doom) of nuclear warfare. And, of course, we have our weekly “Should Democrats Be Panicking?” segment.
Further Reading:
More on Thomas Schelling
More on Stanislav Petrov aka the man who saved the world
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-10-09 05:01:00
The Degenerate Gambler’s Guide to the Election (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria give a degenerate gambler's guide to the election, covering everything from Nate’s $100k gamble on Florida to listener-inspired prop bets. Maria explains why poker bots are shaking up the world of online poker. Plus, Nate and Maria lament the spread of AI “slop” online, and re-evaluate their p(doom) in light of recent developments at OpenAI.
Further Reading:
Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida? from the Silver Bulletin
The Russian Bot Army That Conquered Online Poker from Bloomberg
A Further Investigation into the Existence of the BotFarm Corporation from Poker Pro
Poker-Bots: The Call Is Now Coming From Inside The House from Legal Poker Sites
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-10-03 05:01:00
How to Win Bets and Influence Elections (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Caroline Ellison, the second most important person who worked at FTX, was sentenced to prison this week. Nate and Maria talk about how she and Sam Bankman-Fried thought about making +EV bets (with other people’s money). They discuss her role – victim? villain? – and how she played out her real-life prisoner’s dilemma. Then, Nate gives an election update, and he and Maria discuss what people can do to influence the election in the final weeks. (Hint: It’s not donating to a presidential campaign.) Plus, Nate and Maria say farewell to two degenerate gamblers who passed away this week.
Further Reading:
More on Betsy Paluck’s research
Willy Nelson’s discography
Dana Carvey’s Biden impression from SNL
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-09-26 05:01:00
Conning with the Stars: Anna Delvey, Voting Rationally, and the Maine Nebraska model (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria discuss Anna Sorokin’s (AKA Anna Delvey) spin on Dancing with the Stars. Then, they debate the merits and limits of voting in your self interest, and Nate explains why Nebraska has his attention on the election map.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-09-19 05:01:00
Should You Be Able to Bet On the Election? (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Kalshi, a company that offers prediction markets, sued the US government in an effort to legalize betting on elections. Nate and Maria discuss the pros and cons of election prediction markets. Plus, Nate gives an election update and Maria learns what to do when there’s no plus-EV move.
Further Reading:
Ready Your Bets: Election gambling is going mainstream in the US from Politico
Election Betting Halted After Appeals Court Agrees to Hit the Breaks from WSJ
Betting On Elections Can Tell Us A Lot. Why Is It Mostly Illegal? from the New Yorker
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-09-12 05:01:00
Does Nate Trust His Model? Debates, Prediction Markets and Poker (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria discuss the Harris-Trump debate. Then, Nate gives an update on his election model, and Maria shares the outcome of her irrational move at a poker tournament in Barcelona.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-09-05 05:01:00
Calculating Risks in a Creative Life, with Brian Koppelman (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Maria sits down with the great Brian Koppelman (Rounders, Billions, The Bear) to learn about how he navigates risk in Hollywood and beyond. They discuss his methods of determining when a risk is worth taking, how to offset risk with hard work, and the time he bet big on Billions.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-08-29 05:01:00
Amazing Frauds, Faking Your Own Death, and the Latest on the Election (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria briefly discuss the latest election news. Then Tim Harford, author and host of Cautionary Tales, joins to discuss two of history’s most compelling con artists: Sam Israel III and John Law. Risk-related lessons are learned.
Further Reading:
A Con Man Who Lives Between Truth and Fiction from the New York Times
The Murderer, The Boy King, and The Invention of Modern Finance from NPR (featuring our EP Jacob Goldstein!)
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-08-21 05:01:00
Kamala Edition: Taxes, Tariffs, and the DNC (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
This week Nate and Maria discuss the state of Kamala Harris’ presidential bid, including taking a look at her first policy proposals on price gouging and taxes on tips.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-08-15 05:01:00
Lessons from The River (Maria Interviews Nate About His Book) (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate’s book “On the Edge” is out this week! (Get your copy here.) Maria interviews Nate about the origins of the book, what extreme risk takers get right and wrong, and the year Nate bet a million dollars on sports.
Check out the Risky Business YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@RiskyBusinessShow
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-08-08 05:01:00
Taking Risks in Business, Poker, and Life (with Bill Perkins) (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Maria sits down with Bill Perkins, the legendary energy trader, to talk about his approach to risk in business, poker, and life.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-08-01 05:01:00
Kamala Mode, Misinformation, and Winning the WSOP (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate’s election model is back on, and it’s in Kamala Mode. Nate and Maria discuss what the model shows us about Kamala Harris’ chances, and the strange election misinformation that has been going around. Then, they are joined by World Series of Poker Main Event winner Jonathan Tamayo to discuss his win – and the controversy that surrounds it.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-07-23 05:01:00
Betting on Kamala Harris (with special guest Matt Glassman) (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Biden’s out of the race! Matt Glassman joins Nate to talk about what the consolidation behind Kamala Harris reveals about party politics and who she might pick for a running mate.
Further Reading:
Why Biden Finally Quit from Politico
Can Harris Beat Trump? from New York Magazine
What a Kamala Harris Presidency Might Look Like from Semafor
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-07-18 05:01:00
Conspiracy Theories, J.D. Vance, and Jury Duty (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria discuss the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and the psychology of conspiracy theorists. They talk about what Trump’s selection of J.D. Vance means for the election. And they parse the latest in the Democrats’ intra-party fight over Biden.
Also on the show: Nate’s day at jury duty is a case study in bad bluffs.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-07-10 16:12:05
How to Convince Biden to Quit (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria really, really, really want Joe Biden to drop out of the race.
Maria gives a psychological consult on the best way to convince Biden to quit. Nate estimates Biden’s chances of defeating Donal Trump if he stays in – and Kamala Harris’s chances of winning the election if she replaces Biden.
Also: An update from the Main Event of the World Series of Poker.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-07-04 05:01:00
How to Gamble Like a Chess Player, with Jennifer Shahade (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Maria talks with Women’s Chess Grandmaster Jennifer Shahade about what chess and poker teach you about life; how statistics can help you think about having kids; and the time Maria lost a chess match in four moves.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-06-28 23:25:47
The President Has No Clothes: Biden Should Drop Out (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
In this bonus episode, Nate and Maria discuss last night’s debate between President Biden and former President Trump. They argue that Biden should drop out of the race, and discuss what might happen if he does.
Further Reading:
“Joe Biden Should Drop Out” from Silver Bulletin
“CNN Presidential Debate: President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump” from CNN
“Important Post Debate Analysis" from X user @drewjanda
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-06-27 05:01:00
Nate’s Election Model, the Trouble with Insurance, and How People Get Risk Wrong (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria unveil Nate’s 2024 election model. (The forecast is bad news for Maria.) Also, they explain what insurance industry troubles tell us about the market for risk. And they discuss some key mistakes people make when thinking about risk.
Further Reading:
“Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast” by Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
“Climate Change Has Hit Home Insurance. Is Health Insurance Next?” from the Wall Street Journal
“The Home Insurance Crunch: See What’s Happening in Your State” from the New York Times
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-06-20 05:01:00
Snap Elections, Global Warming, and Maria’s Favorite Hot Sauce (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss the reasoning behind Macron’s decision to hold early elections in France, how heat waves could help communicate the reality of climate change, and what we can learn from the impending sriracha shortage. The theme that ties it all together: How to think about long-term risk.
Further Reading:
“The stakes are high in Macron’s gamble” from the Financial Times
“What A Sriracha Shortage Teaches Us About Supply Chains” from Forbes
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-06-13 05:01:00
Lifetime Terms, Lifetime Bans, and the Return of Roaring Kitty (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss whether Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor should retire, the perils of sports betting among professional athletes, and what the return of Roaring Kitty means for traditional market analysis.
Further Reading:
“Sonia Sotomayor Should Retire Now” from The Atlantic
“Should Sonia Sotomayor Retire?” from Slate
“MLB bans Padres’ Tucupita Marcano permanently for betting on baseball” from the NYT
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-06-06 05:01:00
Mistakes and Unknowns: Election Polls, Poker Tournaments, and the NBA Finals (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
This week on Risky Business, Nate gives his analysis of what Trump’s guilty verdict may mean for the election, Maria shares the biggest mistakes she’s seen at the World Series of Poker so far, and Nate reveals an interesting ripple in the sports betting ecosystem ahead of the NBA Finals.
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-05-30 05:01:00
WSOP Kickoff, Crypto ETFs, and Airfare Refunds (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria are in Vegas for the first week of the World Series of Poker. On today’s show, they share their top tips for acing the World Series, explain the politics behind last week’s approval of a new kind of crypto ETF, and unpack new rules for airline delays.
Further Reading:
“SEC Unexpectedly Expedites ETH ETF w/ Eric Balchunas” from Galaxy Brains
To Buy Into Maria’s WSOP Action:
Visit “StakeKings”
Or “PokerStake”
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-05-23 05:01:00
A Backup for Biden (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Nate and Maria start with something light: p(doom) and the possibility that AI will bring about the end of life as we know it. Then, Nate breaks down the news about the presidential debates and makes a shocking recommendation to the Democratic Party. And – most importantly – our hosts preview the upcoming World Series of Poker in Vegas.
Further Reading:
“OpenAI: Exodus” by Zvi Mowshowitz
“Democrats Have a Better Option Than Biden” by Ezra Klein
“21 Tips for Acing the World Series of Poker” by Nate Silver
To Buy Into Maria’s WSOP Action:
Visit “StakeKings”
Or “PokerStake”
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From Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova at 2024-05-16 05:01:00
Lessons from the Final Table (audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0)
Welcome to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions.
Today, Maria has lessons from a poker tournament she recently played in Monte Carlo, where she made it to the final table. Then, Nate discusses what RFK Jr.’s impressive polling numbers could mean for Biden and Trump. And Nate and Maria discuss Caitlin Clark and what her story tells us – or doesn’t – about the gender pay gap.
Further Reading:
The Biggest Bluff by Maria Konnikova
On The Edge by Nate Silver (forthcoming)
"RFK Jr. Says Doctors Found a Dead Worm in His Brain" (NYT)
"What the conversation about Caitlin Clark’s pay gets wrong" (CNN)
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